MURPHY, IAN
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canonical · murphy/ian · 2 aliases · 2 outbound · 0 inbound
FEC candidate — MURPHY, IAN
G · house · open seat · FEC H2NY26155
Elections (1)
- 2011 general house · NY-26 — running
Committees (1)
- FRIENDS OF IAN MURPHY — principal · type H
Election prediction
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 10.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures for/against
Coordinated party expenditures
Top individual donors — FRIENDS OF IAN MURPHY
Committee assignments
Congressional staff (offices this person hires)
STOCK Act trades
Timeline
Every typed-graph event involving this entity, newest first. Each row is one edge in the influence graph; the inline strip under the row shows the counterpart's own context (a bill's latest action, a hearing's chamber + date, a filing's form type + filed date, a clip's source + excerpt) so the timeline reads like a Wikipedia citation rail.
- 2026-05-24 · joined committee Modern Massachusetts Now Political Action Committee (treasurer) · ma_committee_officer
- 2026-05-17 · is the candidate's principal committee FRIENDS OF IAN MURPHY · candidate_committees
Connected on the graph
2 typed relationships in the influence graph — 0 inbound, 2 outbound, grouped by type.
member of committee (1)
| date | dir | entity | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | → | Modern Massachusetts Now Political Action Committee | — | TREASURER | ma_committee_officer |
principal candidate of (1)
| date | dir | entity | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | → | FRIENDS OF IAN MURPHY | — | candidate_committees |
Aliases (2)
| source | id | name at source | jurisdiction | confidence | linked by | linked at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ma_committee_officer | 80982:TREASURER | Ian Murphy | MA | gold | sync_canonical_entities | |
| fec | H2NY26155 | MURPHY, IAN | US | bronze | backfill_0028 |