NELSON, MARY CHRIS
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canonical · nelson/mary · 2 aliases · 0 outbound · 1 inbound
FEC candidate — NELSON, MARY CHRIS
D · house · open seat · FEC H2NV00019
Elections (0)
No elections on file.
Committees (0)
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures for/against
Coordinated party expenditures
Committee assignments
Congressional staff (offices this person hires)
STOCK Act trades
Timeline
Every typed-graph event involving this entity, newest first. Each row is one edge in the influence graph; the inline strip under the row shows the counterpart's own context (a bill's latest action, a hearing's chamber + date, a filing's form type + filed date, a clip's source + excerpt) so the timeline reads like a Wikipedia citation rail.
- 2026-05-24 · principal committee is Mary Nelson Committee · ma_filer
Connected on the graph
1 typed relationship in the influence graph — 1 inbound, 0 outbound, grouped by type.
principal candidate of (1)
| date | dir | entity | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | ← | Mary Nelson Committee | — | ma_filer |
Aliases (2)
| source | id | name at source | jurisdiction | confidence | linked by | linked at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ma_candidate | 18109 | Mary Nelson | MA | gold | sync_canonical_entities | |
| fec | H2NV00019 | NELSON, MARY CHRIS | US | bronze | backfill_0028 |