FLAKE, JEFF MR.
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0AZ01184- Internal id
f91bbb3b-56e6-4237-808d-5f1c7ef8b4e2- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-06. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 812,709 |
| People | Median age | 44 |
| Income | Median household income | $77,758 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $45,149 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.461 |
| Race | White alone | 68.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 3.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 25.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 16.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 9.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 83.2% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 12.0% |
| Education | High school or higher | 59.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 39.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 17.2% |
| Household | Family households | 61.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.29 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 28.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $343,400 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,266 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 65.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.4% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 11.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 16.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 71.3% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 16.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $8,300 | $813,052 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $0 | $19,842 | $821,352 | $0 | $0 |
| 2022 | $0 | $253,916 | $841,195 | $0 | $0 |
| 2020 | $4,140 | $30,996 | $1,095,111 | $0 | $0 |
| 2018 | $4,147,037 | $3,605,283 | $1,121,967 | $0 | $2,420,191 |
| 2016 | $1,012,430 | $541,821 | $580,214 | $0 | $580,490 |
| 2014 | $477,315 | $463,704 | $109,605 | $0 | $222,653 |
| 2012 | $9,026,951 | $9,557,420 | $95,995 | $0 | $7,119,692 |
| 2010 | $538,758 | $774,231 | $627,852 | $0 | $495,243 |
| 2008 | $1,289,325 | $845,011 | $863,325 | $0 | $1,131,981 |
| 2006 | $543,621 | $272,425 | $419,037 | $0 | $391,697 |
| 2004 | $644,793 | $675,061 | $147,120 | $0 | $525,285 |
| 2002 | $373,431 | $265,353 | $169,589 | $0 | $227,947 |
| 2000 | $558,483 | $505,210 | $61,511 | $0 | $420,998 |
Elections
- 2000 general house Β· AZ-1 β lost_general
- 2000 general house Β· AZ-6 β running
- 2002 general house Β· AZ-6 β running
- 2004 general house Β· AZ-6 β running
- 2006 general house Β· AZ-6 β running
- 2008 general house Β· AZ-6 β running
- 2010 general house Β· AZ-6 β running
- 2012 general house Β· AZ-6 β lost_general
Committees
- JEFF FLAKE FOR US SENATE INC. β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | JEFF FLAKE FOR US SENATE INC. | β | candidate_committees |