ARBALLO, PHIL
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0CA22102- Internal id
d702fbb7-7b14-4cfc-b27e-891d894bfead- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-13. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 785,894 |
| People | Median age | 32 |
| Income | Median household income | $69,468 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $27,323 |
| Income | In poverty | 18.8% |
| Income | Unemployed | 10.3% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.453 |
| Race | White alone | 28.7% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.9% |
| Race | Asian alone | 6.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 66.1% |
| Race | Two or more races | 24.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 27.1% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 43.4% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 48.8% |
| Education | High school or higher | 43.6% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 14.1% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 4.1% |
| Household | Family households | 75.8% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.45 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 41.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $395,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,361 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 75.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.9% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 10.8% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 5.3% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 3.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 7.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $0 | $16,833 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $116,818 | $99,935 | $16,833 | $0 | $116,818 |
| 2022 | $1,607,919 | $1,637,185 | $0 | $0 | $1,539,306 |
| 2020 | $5,175,373 | $5,146,107 | $29,266 | $0 | $5,100,278 |
Elections
- 2020 general house Β· CA-22 β lost_general
- 2020 general house Β· CA-13 β running
- 2022 general house Β· CA-13 β lost_general
- 2024 general house Β· CA-13 β lost_general
Committees
- ARBALLO FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- PHIL ARBALLO FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $13,275 | $0 | 1 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-09 | VPP | support | $13,275 | Direct Mail Advertising |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Connected on the graph
Inbound (56)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-08 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $111 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-08 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $18 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-08 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $7 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-03 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-03 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $92 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-01 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $185 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-27 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $148 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-27 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-12 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-12 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $4 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-12 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $63 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-12 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-12 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $24 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-22 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-22 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-08 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $9 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-01 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $8 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-25 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $7 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-25 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-25 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $12 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-04 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $8 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-21 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-21 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $7 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-07 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-07 | LATINO VICTORY FUND | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-07 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $9 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-07 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $21 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-03 | LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND | contributed_to | $75 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-03 | LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND | contributed_to | $4,925 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-01 | END CITIZENS UNITED | contributed_to | $3,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-26 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-09 | VPP | supports_independently | $13,275 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-05-09 | VPP | contributed_to | $13,275 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $17 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $23 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $11 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $4 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $38 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $9 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $61 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $32 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $16 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-26 | BLUE BATTLEGROUND PROJECT | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-30 | CHC BOLD PAC | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-28 | SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-14 | SD PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-02-01 | VPP | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2021-12-22 | CHC BOLD PAC | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2021-12-14 | DEFEAT REPUBLICANS PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2021-06-30 | DEFEAT REPUBLICANS PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2021-05-19 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | contributed_to | $8 | pas2 | |
| 2021-03-24 | DEFEAT REPUBLICANS PAC | contributed_to | $2,200 | pas2 | |
| 2021-02-17 | LA BAMBA PAC | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2021-01-27 | DEFEAT REPUBLICANS PAC | contributed_to | $2,800 | pas2 |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | PHIL ARBALLO FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | ARBALLO FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |