ARRINGTON, RANDALL STEVEN PHD

R · house

FEC candidate id: H0CA53024
Internal id: e60d1513-d738-492c-a995-be7bfc7ee4e4
Status: challenger

Elections

2010 general house · CA-53 — lost_general

Committees

RANDY ARRINGTON FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	RANDY ARRINGTON FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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