ORISTIAN, MICHAEL PATRICK

R · house

FEC candidate id: H0CA53214
Internal id: e05cd23c-83aa-4bb3-a46b-70e02a40841d
Status: open seat

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2020	$18,602	$18,131	$0	$0	$18,602

Elections

2020 general house · CA-53 — lost_general

Committees

ORISTIAN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	ORISTIAN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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