GARCIA, FERNANDO
OTHER Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0CA53271- Internal id
f59c9e2b-84fc-4a85-8735-38a3d10a6dfc- Status
- open seat
Elections
- 2020 general house Β· CA-53 β lost_general
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 10.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.