LEE, MICHAEL AGUSTUS (MATTHEW)
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0DC00215- Internal id
c72269e9-2ce1-4f3b-b6aa-10483ad6b1af- Status
- challenger
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
- LOWER CLASS COMMITTEE, THE β principal Β· type H
- OUR WONDERFUL HEAVENLY FATHER THE KINGS MIGHTY MINISTRY β principal Β· type H
- WORD OF GOD COMMITTEE COMMITTEE ON THE WORD β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (3)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | OUR WONDERFUL HEAVENLY FATHER THE KINGS MIGHTY MINISTRY | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | LOWER CLASS COMMITTEE, THE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | WORD OF GOD COMMITTEE COMMITTEE ON THE WORD | β | candidate_committees |