SHAW, E CLAY JR
R Β· house Β· bioguide S000303
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- FEC candidate id
H0FL12010- Internal id
6fc8a1b2-74c9-423e-9129-f0e71486a1f8- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), FL-22. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 786,471 |
| People | Median age | 46 |
| Income | Median household income | $81,071 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $50,055 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.8% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.515 |
| Race | White alone | 51.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 17.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.7% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 28.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 17.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 30.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 60.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 24.0% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 15.3% |
| Household | Family households | 63.1% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.50 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $416,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,876 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 46.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 3.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 16.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 4.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 69.2% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.9% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $33,122 | $38,423 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2008 | $62,913 | $102,491 | $5,301 | $0 | $0 |
| 2006 | $4,707,681 | $5,226,167 | $44,879 | $0 | $2,701,786 |
| 2004 | $1,585,011 | $1,237,971 | $563,365 | $0 | $846,400 |
| 2002 | $1,954,341 | $1,968,158 | $216,324 | $0 | $1,030,625 |
| 2000 | $2,755,056 | $3,086,708 | $230,140 | $0 | $1,211,645 |
| 1998 | $530,992 | $353,968 | $561,792 | $0 | $238,617 |
| 1996 | $764,768 | $548,109 | $384,770 | $0 | $278,555 |
| 1994 | $860,784 | $808,984 | $168,112 | $0 | $426,387 |
| 1992 | $948,514 | $1,138,425 | $116,312 | $0 | $452,978 |
| 1990 | $413,387 | $120,632 | $306,224 | $0 | $153,631 |
| 1988 | $348,233 | $455,578 | $13,467 | $0 | $180,700 |
| 1986 | $203,766 | $102,671 | $120,811 | $0 | $0 |
| 1984 | $388,007 | $372,658 | $19,717 | $0 | $263,337 |
| 1982 | $296,906 | $302,070 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1980 | $430,656 | $421,126 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Elections
- 1980 general house Β· FL-12 β won
- 1982 general house Β· FL-15 β won
- 1984 general house Β· FL-15 β won
- 1986 general house Β· FL-15 β won
- 1988 general house Β· FL-15 β won
- 1990 general house Β· FL-15 β won
- 1992 general house Β· FL-22 β won
- 1994 general house Β· FL-22 β won
- 1996 general house Β· FL-22 β won
- 1998 general house Β· FL-22 β won
- 2000 general house Β· FL-22 β won
- 2002 general house Β· FL-22 β won
- 2004 general house Β· FL-22 β won
- 2006 general house Β· FL-22 β lost_general
- 2008 general house Β· FL-22 β lost_general
Committees
- 2005 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- 2006 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- FRIENDS OF CLAY SHAW β principal Β· type H
- PHYSICIANS TO RETAIN OUR MAJORITY - PROM β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENT 2002 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- ROMP III 2006 β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- SOUTHEAST ROMP β joint_fundraising Β· type H
Recent votes
No votes on file.
Sponsored & cosponsored bills
No sponsorships on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (7)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | ROMP III 2006 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | 2006 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENT 2002 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | 2005 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | PHYSICIANS TO RETAIN OUR MAJORITY - PROM | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | SOUTHEAST ROMP | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF CLAY SHAW | β | candidate_committees |