SEVERINO, JOSEPH

I · house

FEC candidate id: H0IL10393
Internal id: b2f3f5cd-ea2b-43e2-b91f-89092aff4aea
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), IL-10. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	753,708
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$107,371
Income	Per-capita income	$59,487
Income	In poverty	8.6%
Income	Unemployed	5.0%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.502
Race	White alone	61.8%
Race	Black alone	6.5%
Race	Asian alone	8.3%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	24.7%
Race	Two or more races	13.3%
Origin	Foreign-born	19.9%
Language	Speaks English only at home	68.7%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	18.8%
Education	High school or higher	67.1%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	47.0%
Education	Advanced degree	20.4%
Household	Family households	70.9%
Household	Avg household size	2.66
Household	Never married (15+)	31.8%
Housing	Median home value	$342,700
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,477
Housing	Single-family detached	65.5%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.0%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.9%
Housing	Vacant units	5.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	4.8%
Health	With a disability	10.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.2%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.2%
Commute	Drove alone	65.2%
Commute	Public transit	3.0%
Commute	Worked from home	19.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$34,275	$21,920	$0	$0	$34,275

Elections

2020 general house · IL-10 — lost_general
2022 general house · IL-10 — lost_general
2024 general house · IL-10 — lost_general

Committees

SEVERINO FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 15.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$14,446	$0	4

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	NEW JOURNEY PAC, INC.	support	$500	Text Messaging Services
—	NEW JOURNEY PAC, INC.	support	$500	Text Messaging Services
2022-10-24	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	support	$3,446	Direct mail
2022-10-06	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	support	$10,000	Digital advertising (placement and production)

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-11-22	NEW JOURNEY PAC, INC.	24E	$500
2022-10-24	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	24E	$3,445
2022-10-06	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	24E	$10,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (7)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	NEW JOURNEY PAC, INC.	supports_independently	$500	fec_ies
—	NEW JOURNEY PAC, INC.	supports_independently	$500	fec_ies
2022-11-22	NEW JOURNEY PAC, INC.	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-10-24	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	contributed_to	$3,445	pas2
2022-10-24	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	supports_independently	$3,446	fec_ies
2022-10-06	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2022-10-06	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	contributed_to	$10,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	SEVERINO FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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