CARNAHAN, JOHN RUSSELL
D Β· house Β· bioguide C001060
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- FEC candidate id
H0MO00019- Internal id
5c857630-8f9c-42b8-980b-dcaf48000514- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MO-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 752,720 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $61,097 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,819 |
| Income | In poverty | 17.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.497 |
| Race | White alone | 41.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 45.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 90.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 3.4% |
| Education | High school or higher | 63.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.0% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 16.9% |
| Household | Family households | 50.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.15 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 45.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $179,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,096 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 58.9% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 7.9% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.9% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.1% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 15.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 67.3% |
| Commute | Public transit | 3.8% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 16.8% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $2,627 | $2,840 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2014 | $10,284 | $13,027 | $213 | $20,203 | $7,722 |
| 2012 | $1,398,407 | $1,411,659 | $2,956 | $20,847 | $810,367 |
| 2010 | $2,127,173 | $2,276,619 | $16,208 | $0 | $1,147,685 |
| 2008 | $962,397 | $883,237 | $165,654 | $0 | $335,490 |
| 2006 | $1,263,768 | $1,184,967 | $86,494 | $49,000 | $605,518 |
| 2004 | $1,399,946 | $1,392,253 | $7,693 | $144,086 | $830,314 |
| 1994 | $26,857 | $24,413 | $2,451 | $6,149 | $16,200 |
| 1992 | $3,536 | $3,550 | $19 | $13,260 | $1,711 |
| 1990 | $251,358 | $250,082 | $1,274 | $18,964 | $124,696 |
Elections
- 1990 general house Β· MO-8 β won
- 2004 general house Β· MO-3 β won
- 2006 general house Β· MO-3 β won
- 2008 general house Β· MO-3 β won
- 2010 general house Β· MO-3 β won
- 2012 general house Β· MO-1 β won
Committees
- JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND 2012 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- RUSS CARNAHAN 2010 MDP β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- RUSS CARNAHAN FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- RUSS CARNAHAN IN CONGRESS COMMITTEE β principal Β· type H
Recent votes
No votes on file.
Sponsored & cosponsored bills
- sponsor Β· 2005-04-20 β HR 1728 β Ste. Genevieve County National Historic Site Study Act of 2005
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (5)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND 2012 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | RUSS CARNAHAN 2010 MDP | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | RUSS CARNAHAN IN CONGRESS COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | RUSS CARNAHAN FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees | |
| 2005-04-20 | sponsor_of_bill | HR 1728 β Ste. Genevieve County National Historic Site Study Act of 2005 | β | sponsor | sponsorship |