CLAY, WILLIAM LACY JR
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0MO01066- Internal id
87bebedd-cc58-47e3-b399-58837fc5274d- Status
- incumbent
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MO-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 752,720 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $61,097 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,819 |
| Income | In poverty | 17.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.497 |
| Race | White alone | 41.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 45.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 90.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 3.4% |
| Education | High school or higher | 63.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.0% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 16.9% |
| Household | Family households | 50.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.15 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 45.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $179,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,096 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 58.9% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 7.9% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.9% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.1% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 15.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 67.3% |
| Commute | Public transit | 3.8% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 16.8% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0 | $550 | $19,987 | $0 | $0 |
| 2020 | $864,884 | $1,038,724 | $20,537 | $0 | $212,663 |
| 2018 | $663,729 | $709,121 | $194,377 | $0 | $84,386 |
| 2016 | $660,080 | $738,019 | $238,779 | $0 | $67,276 |
| 2014 | $583,584 | $384,887 | $317,053 | $0 | $90,230 |
| 2012 | $866,835 | $991,857 | $118,356 | $0 | $278,733 |
| 2010 | $693,370 | $635,944 | $243,378 | $0 | $232,490 |
| 2008 | $674,855 | $622,533 | $185,953 | $0 | $215,077 |
| 2006 | $443,365 | $464,671 | $133,631 | $0 | $134,640 |
| 2004 | $369,308 | $262,654 | $154,936 | $0 | $168,295 |
| 2002 | $353,258 | $351,893 | $48,282 | $0 | $125,501 |
| 2000 | $719,057 | $678,463 | $46,916 | $0 | $358,984 |
Elections
- 2000 general house Β· MO-1 β won
- 2002 general house Β· MO-1 β running
- 2004 general house Β· MO-1 β running
- 2006 general house Β· MO-1 β running
- 2008 general house Β· MO-1 β running
- 2010 general house Β· MO-1 β running
- 2012 general house Β· MO-1 β lost_general
- 2014 general house Β· MO-1 β running
- 2016 general house Β· MO-1 β running
- 2018 general house Β· MO-1 β lost_general
- 2020 general house Β· MO-1 β lost_general
Committees
- CLAY JR. FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 99.0%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| incumbent | +78.0% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-21 | MASSACHUSETTS MUTUAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY POL⦠| 24K | $-2,500 |
| 2022-08-11 | AMALGAMATED TRANSIT UNION - COPE | 24K | $-1,000 |
| 2021-07-27 | ROCKET LIMITED PARTNERSHIP PAC (ROCKET PAC) | 24K | $-2,500 |
| 2021-03-16 | ALLY FINANCIAL INC. ADVOCACY POLITICAL ACTION C⦠| 24K | $-2,500 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (4)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-21 | MASSACHUSETTS MUTUAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $-2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-11 | AMALGAMATED TRANSIT UNION - COPE | contributed_to | $-1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2021-07-27 | ROCKET LIMITED PARTNERSHIP PAC (ROCKET PAC) | contributed_to | $-2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2021-03-16 | ALLY FINANCIAL INC. ADVOCACY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $-2,500 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | CLAY JR. FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |