CAREY, THOMAS L.
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0MS02116- Internal id
ddeb43c5-2fe6-4b6d-8dc2-799e1aec3e06- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MS-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 713,085 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $44,511 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $26,505 |
| Income | In poverty | 25.8% |
| Income | Unemployed | 7.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.499 |
| Race | White alone | 31.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 63.8% |
| Race | Asian alone | 0.5% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 2.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 2.7% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 1.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 96.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.0% |
| Education | High school or higher | 52.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 21.6% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.6% |
| Household | Family households | 61.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.44 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 42.1% |
| Housing | Median home value | $117,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $853 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 68.1% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 18.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.3% |
| Health | With a disability | 18.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 78.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 15.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 81.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.4% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 5.6% |
Elections
- 2020 general house Β· MS-2 β lost_general
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.