BLAKE, MICHAEL ALEXANDER
D Β· house
Sign in to add to a watchlist β
- FEC candidate id
H0NY15194- Internal id
7dc8f68f-5ac6-45df-ad39-aac7c304747b- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-15. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 751,695 |
| People | Median age | 36 |
| Income | Median household income | $47,075 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $27,148 |
| Income | In poverty | 29.8% |
| Income | Unemployed | 12.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.533 |
| Race | White alone | 13.6% |
| Race | Black alone | 36.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.9% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 52.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 15.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 34.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 44.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 43.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 50.2% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 22.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.7% |
| Household | Family households | 61.0% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.50 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 50.5% |
| Housing | Median home value | $532,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,418 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 5.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 9.9% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 12.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 4.1% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 1.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 18.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 86.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 9.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 21.7% |
| Commute | Public transit | 53.7% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 9.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $1,006,403 | $1,006,267 | $137 | $0 | $932,170 |
Elections
- 2020 general house Β· NY-15 β lost_general
Committees
- MICHAEL BLAKE FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-09 | AMERICAN MOSAIC PAC | 24K | $-1,000 |
| 2021-11-17 | COZEN O'CONNOR POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | 24K | $-100 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (2)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-09 | AMERICAN MOSAIC PAC | contributed_to | $-1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2021-11-17 | COZEN O'CONNOR POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | MICHAEL BLAKE FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |