KELLY, GEORGE J JR
R · house
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- FEC candidate id
H0PA03271- Internal id
9d239848-6bd5-4c94-a307-e72105c42e2e- Status
- incumbent
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), PA-16. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 762,592 |
| People | Median age | 43 |
| Income | Median household income | $67,764 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $38,561 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.460 |
| Race | White alone | 88.3% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.3% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 2.9% |
| Race | Two or more races | 5.0% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 95.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.4% |
| Education | High school or higher | 67.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 30.0% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 11.0% |
| Household | Family households | 62.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.31 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 31.7% |
| Housing | Median home value | $188,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $896 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 71.5% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 7.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.0% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 15.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 9.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.6% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 11.6% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $886,279 | $739,862 | $1,189,104 | $90,000 | $236,207 |
| 2024 | $1,670,916 | $1,527,434 | $1,042,688 | $95,000 | $544,088 |
| 2022 | $1,320,812 | $1,380,130 | $899,206 | $95,000 | $499,061 |
| 2020 | $2,300,601 | $1,380,453 | $958,525 | $90,000 | $636,905 |
| 2018 | $2,590,297 | $3,294,021 | $38,377 | $90,000 | $866,204 |
| 2016 | $1,823,036 | $1,219,325 | $742,102 | $90,000 | $645,449 |
| 2014 | $1,648,321 | $1,546,195 | $138,391 | $277,995 | $600,681 |
| 2012 | $1,146,862 | $1,139,318 | $36,264 | $331,995 | $599,358 |
| 2010 | $1,335,430 | $1,306,960 | $28,470 | $382,720 | $600,980 |
Elections
- 2010 general house · PA-3 — won
- 2010 general house · PA-16 — running
- 2012 general house · PA-16 — running
- 2012 general house · PA-3 — won
- 2014 general house · PA-3 — won
- 2014 general house · PA-16 — running
- 2016 general house · PA-16 — running
- 2016 general house · PA-3 — won
- 2018 general house · PA-16 — won
- 2020 general house · PA-16 — won
- 2022 general house · PA-16 — won
- 2024 general house · PA-16 — won
- 2026 general house · PA-16 — running
Committees
- GREAT EIGHT COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
- KELLY-THOMPSON VICTORY FUND — joint_fundraising · type H
- KELLY-THOMPSON VICTORY FUND — joint_fundraising · type H
- MIKE KELLY FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
- PA + 5 COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 99.0%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| incumbent | +78.0% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $4,020 | $0 | 4 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL… | support | $1,915 | PRINTING / POSTAGE |
| 2024-09-27 | NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL… | support | $95 | PRINTING / POSTAGE |
| 2024-09-27 | NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL… | support | $1,915 | PRINTING / POSTAGE |
| 2024-09-27 | NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL… | support | $95 | PRINTING / POSTAGE |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee MIKE KELLY FOR CONGRESS.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PICARD, TYRON | THE PICARD GROUP · CEO | LAFAYETTE, LA | 1 | $3,500 |
| CESLAK, YVONNE | RETIRED · RETIRED | HERMITAGE, PA | 1 | $250 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
Outbound (5)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | joint_fundraising_committee_of | PA + 5 COMMITTEE | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | joint_fundraising_committee_of | KELLY-THOMPSON VICTORY FUND | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | joint_fundraising_committee_of | GREAT EIGHT COMMITTEE | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | joint_fundraising_committee_of | KELLY-THOMPSON VICTORY FUND | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | principal_candidate_of | MIKE KELLY FOR CONGRESS | — | candidate_committees |