MOTA, JOSEPH MACK
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0VA02159- Internal id
7a16458b-65ba-431f-be0f-ea97948137db- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), VA-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 787,890 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $93,757 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $47,696 |
| Income | In poverty | 8.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.433 |
| Race | White alone | 60.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 22.4% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 7.9% |
| Race | Two or more races | 9.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 89.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 4.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.7% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.9% |
| Household | Family households | 68.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.52 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $377,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,647 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 63.1% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 2.0% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.1% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 15.2% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.1% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.2% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.4% |
Elections
- 2020 general house Β· VA-2 β lost_general
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.