ADALIA, ZOILO
OTHER Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0WY01044- Internal id
f99e574c-b56d-4ddf-9735-1142060f03a1- Status
- challenger
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.