NOTTI, EMIL

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2AK00242
Internal id: 0fc3bc16-a2ac-4271-8362-656807a44d3c
Status: open seat

Elections

No elections on file.

Committees

EMIL NOTTI FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	24E	$555
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	24E	$750
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	24E	$267
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	24E	$235

Connected on the graph

Inbound (8)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$555	24E	fec_pas2
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$750	24E	fec_pas2
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$267	24E	fec_pas2
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$235	24E	fec_pas2
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	contributed_to	$750		pas2
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	contributed_to	$235		pas2
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	contributed_to	$267		pas2
2022-06-08	ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION	contributed_to	$555		pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	EMIL NOTTI FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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