ARMSTRONG, JAY R
OTHER Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2AK00267- Internal id
6a83eb95-77d0-4ab7-ad83-3f90b9d2cca8- Status
- open seat
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
- JAY R ARMSTRONG β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 10.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | 24A | $750 |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | 24A | $235 |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | 24A | $555 |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | 24A | $267 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (4)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | contributed_to | $750 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | contributed_to | $235 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | contributed_to | $267 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | contributed_to | $555 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | JAY R ARMSTRONG | β | candidate_committees |