GIBBONS, THOMAS R. "TOM"
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2AK00291- Internal id
e9fb586e-450d-4935-bd50-59f45c91f76f- Status
- open seat
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | 24A | $750 |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | 24A | $235 |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | 24A | $555 |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | 24A | $267 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (8)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $750 | 24A | fec_pas2 |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $235 | 24A | fec_pas2 |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $555 | 24A | fec_pas2 |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $267 | 24A | fec_pas2 |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | contributed_to | $750 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | contributed_to | $235 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | contributed_to | $267 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-08 | ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION | contributed_to | $555 | pas2 |