ENGEL, KIRSTEN

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2AZ02311
Internal id: 12b2812c-eacb-44ff-a0bd-1397dcca1756
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-06. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	812,709
People	Median age	44
Income	Median household income	$77,758
Income	Per-capita income	$45,149
Income	In poverty	10.4%
Income	Unemployed	5.0%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.461
Race	White alone	68.4%
Race	Black alone	3.7%
Race	Asian alone	3.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	25.4%
Race	Two or more races	16.9%
Origin	Foreign-born	9.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	83.2%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	12.0%
Education	High school or higher	59.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	39.5%
Education	Advanced degree	17.2%
Household	Family households	61.2%
Household	Avg household size	2.29
Household	Never married (15+)	28.6%
Housing	Median home value	$343,400
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,266
Housing	Single-family detached	65.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.4%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.2%
Housing	Vacant units	10.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	11.9%
Health	With a disability	16.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	92.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	5.3%
Commute	Drove alone	71.3%
Commute	Public transit	0.9%
Commute	Worked from home	16.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$8,461,618	$8,430,005	$32,419	$0	$6,839,058
2022	$2,474,878	$2,469,071	$1,305	$5,347	$2,233,624

Elections

2022 general house · AZ-6 — lost_general
2024 general house · AZ-6 — lost_general

Committees

KIRSTEN PAC — principal · type N
KIRSTEN PAC — independent · type N

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$95,723	$0	4
2024	$3,394,361	$873,794	804
2022	$51,534	$2,185,011	31

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$48	ESTIMATE: T-Shirts
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$67	ESTIMATE: T-Shirts
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$85,000	Canvassing Services
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$10,608	ESTIMATE: Direct Mail Production & Postage
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$10,258	ESTIMATE: Direct Mail Production & Postage
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$667	ESTIMATE: Phone Banking
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$10,134	ESTIMATE: Direct Mail Production & Postage
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$10,608	ESTIMATE: Direct Mail Production & Postage
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$67	ESTIMATE: T-Shirts
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$1,275	ESTIMATE: Canvassing Literature
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$69	ESTIMATE: Stickers
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$10,258	Direct Mail Production & Postage
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$85,000	Canvassing Services
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$9,444	ESTIMATE: Phone Banking
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$3,281	ESTIMATE: Door Hangers
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$6,000	ESTIMATE: Palm Cards
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$35,556	Canvassing Services
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$43	ESTIMATE: Stickers
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$48	ESTIMATE: T-Shirts
—	HMP	support	$28,689	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$5,500	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$94,673	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$94,342	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$71,754	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$44,888	Digital Advertising - Estimate

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	INDIVISIBLE ACTION	24E	$2,400
—	NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE	24E	$1,331
2025-03-05	WESTERN STATES REGIONAL COUNCIL OF CARPENTERS L…	24E	$2,541
2022-12-01	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF TEAMSTERS	24F	$310
2022-11-10	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF TEAMSTERS	24F	$2,206
2022-11-07	ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE ACTION FUND	24F	$3,000
2022-11-07	JEFFRIES FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-11-07	OCCUPY DEMOCRATS ELECTION FUND	24K	$2,900
2022-11-07	SIERRA CLUB POLITICAL COMMITTEE	24K	$1,500
2022-11-06	CLF	24A	$2,200
2022-11-03	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ACTION FUND INC PAC, DBA PLA…	24K	$2,500
2022-11-02	NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE	24E	$1,331
2022-11-02	SCHIFF FOR SENATE	24K	$2,000
2022-11-02	END CITIZENS UNITED	24K	$1,000
2022-11-02	OUR VOICE OUR VOTE ARIZONA PAC	24E	$282
2022-11-02	NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE	24E	$13,006
2022-11-01	CLF	24A	$4,100
2022-11-01	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS…	24K	$1,500
2022-11-01	CLF	24A	$21,000
2022-11-01	SCHIFF FOR SENATE	24K	$-2,000
2022-10-31	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	24K	$10
2022-10-31	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	24K	$25
2022-10-31	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	24K	$25
2022-10-31	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	24K	$25
2022-10-28	NRCC	24A	$28,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,331	pas2
—	INDIVISIBLE ACTION	contributed_to	$2,400	pas2
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$85,000	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$48	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$67	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$10,608	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$3,281	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$9,444	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$85,000	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$10,608	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$10,258	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$1,275	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$43	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$10,258	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$67	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$48	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$35,556	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$69	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$10,134	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$667	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$74,310	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$97,230	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$88,017	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$15,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$97,230	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$71,754	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$16,018	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$15,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$27,323	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$44,888	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$28,689	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$71,754	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$5,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$44,888	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$94,342	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$14,830	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$94,673	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$14,830	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	opposes_independently	$5,029	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	opposes_independently	$5,029	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	opposes_independently	$9,117	fec_ies
—	NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$13,007	fec_ies
—	NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$1,332	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	opposes_independently	$3,854	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	opposes_independently	$3,854	fec_ies
2025-03-05	WESTERN STATES REGIONAL COUNCIL OF CARPENTERS LEGISLATIVE IMPROVEMENT CMTE UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS & JOINERS OF AMERICA	contributed_to	$2,541	pas2
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$123	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$171	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$46	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$46	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$153	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$52	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$164	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$159	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$153	fec_ies
2024-11-05	POPULATION CONNECTION ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$443	fec_ies
2024-11-05	POPULATION CONNECTION ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$443	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$213	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$230	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$52	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$153	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$171	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$1,277	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$164	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$230	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$159	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$123	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$1,277	fec_ies
2024-11-05	FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$153	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$1,328	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$1,193	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$2,062	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$16,757	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$2,062	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$1,328	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$16,757	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$1,193	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$20,241	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$20,241	fec_ies
2024-11-04	POPULATION CONNECTION ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$459	fec_ies
2024-11-04	POPULATION CONNECTION ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$459	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$20,241	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$1,071	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$10,102	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$10,102	fec_ies
2024-11-04	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$10,102	fec_ies
2024-11-03	POPULATION CONNECTION ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$211	fec_ies
2024-11-03	POPULATION CONNECTION ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$301	fec_ies
2024-11-03	POPULATION CONNECTION ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$301	fec_ies
2024-11-03	POPULATION CONNECTION ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$211	fec_ies
2024-11-03	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)	supports_independently	$3,000	fec_ies
2024-11-01	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$35,421	fec_ies
2024-11-01	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$35,421	fec_ies
2024-11-01	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$35,421	fec_ies
2024-10-31	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$5,420	fec_ies
2024-10-31	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$5,420	fec_ies
2024-10-30	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$1,235	fec_ies
2024-10-30	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$2,182	fec_ies
2024-10-30	WORKER POWER	supports_independently	$2,182	fec_ies

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	independent_committee_of	KIRSTEN PAC	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	KIRSTEN PAC	—		candidate_committees

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