MCSALLY, MARTHA
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2AZ08102- Internal id
cda9a8e3-0416-46a1-85f1-7d9347e5106d- Status
- incumbent
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 826,257 |
| People | Median age | 42 |
| Income | Median household income | $67,729 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $34,854 |
| Income | In poverty | 16.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 6.3% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.458 |
| Race | White alone | 58.5% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.4% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.3% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 18.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 12.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 5.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 78.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 8.8% |
| Education | High school or higher | 53.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 26.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 10.2% |
| Household | Family households | 64.8% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.49 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.2% |
| Housing | Median home value | $345,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,254 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.2% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 5.1% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 18.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 8.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 16.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 85.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 11.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 69.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.5% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.8% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2022 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2020 | $0 | $66,813 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2018 | $4,204,846 | $4,480,277 | $66,813 | $0 | $3,344,919 |
| 2016 | $7,878,156 | $8,004,418 | $342,244 | $327,833 | $5,975,190 |
| 2014 | $4,941,802 | $4,503,581 | $468,506 | $87,500 | $3,504,798 |
| 2012 | $1,472,330 | $1,442,045 | $30,285 | $7,324 | $1,094,326 |
Elections
- 2012 general house Β· AZ-2 β lost_general
- 2014 general house Β· AZ-2 β lost_general
- 2016 general house Β· AZ-2 β running
- 2018 general house Β· AZ-2 β lost_general
Committees
- AMERICAN FUND β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- ARIZONA CONGRESSIONAL MAJORITY FUND β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- ARIZONA CONGRESSIONAL VICTORY FUND β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- FRIENDS OF WINNING WOMEN β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- MCSALLY FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- MCSALLY TOBIN ROGERS DUCEY VICTORY COMMITTEE (MTRDVC) β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- MCSALLY TOBIN VICTORY COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- PATRIOT DAY I 2015 β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- REPUBLICANS INSPIRING SUCCESS & EMPOWERMENT PROJECT (RISE PROJECT) β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- WINNING WOMEN β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- WINNING WOMEN 2016 β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- YOUNG GUNS 2012 ROUND 4 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- YOUNG GUNS DAY I 2014 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 99.0%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| incumbent | +78.0% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (13)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | WINNING WOMEN | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | YOUNG GUNS DAY I 2014 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | YOUNG GUNS 2012 ROUND 4 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | MCSALLY TOBIN ROGERS DUCEY VICTORY COMMITTEE (MTRDVC) | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | FRIENDS OF WINNING WOMEN | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | ARIZONA CONGRESSIONAL VICTORY FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | PATRIOT DAY I 2015 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | MCSALLY TOBIN VICTORY COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | ARIZONA CONGRESSIONAL MAJORITY FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | AMERICAN FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | REPUBLICANS INSPIRING SUCCESS & EMPOWERMENT PROJECT (RISE PROJECT) | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | WINNING WOMEN 2016 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | MCSALLY FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |