COOPER, KELLY

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2AZ09191
Internal id: 3de2266a-d821-418a-bc27-c21db579a10b
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-04. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	804,739
People	Median age	35
Income	Median household income	$82,587
Income	Per-capita income	$43,750
Income	In poverty	12.0%
Income	Unemployed	4.6%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.433
Race	White alone	61.2%
Race	Black alone	5.3%
Race	Asian alone	5.8%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	26.5%
Race	Two or more races	17.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	13.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	77.7%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	15.1%
Education	High school or higher	59.6%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	39.2%
Education	Advanced degree	14.8%
Household	Family households	57.5%
Household	Avg household size	2.41
Household	Never married (15+)	40.4%
Housing	Median home value	$417,400
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,706
Housing	Single-family detached	50.2%
Housing	Built before 1940	0.8%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	4.4%
Housing	Vacant units	9.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.3%
Health	With a disability	12.3%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.2%
Commute	Drove alone	64.1%
Commute	Public transit	1.4%
Commute	Worked from home	20.3%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$30,190	$0	$0	$0
2024	$788,327	$816,881	$30,190	$603,480	$607,198
2022	$2,342,077	$2,283,333	$58,744	$591,757	$642,309

Elections

2022 general house · AZ-4 — lost_general
2024 general house · AZ-4 — lost_general

Committees

COOPER FOR AZ-04 — principal · type H
KELLY COOPER FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$35,000	$0	1
2022	$42,827	$3,686,310	249

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HMP	oppose	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$10,172	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$48,570	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$51,074	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$51,074	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$51,074	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$22,885	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$26,273	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$420,750	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$48,570	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$51,074	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$6,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$6,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$841,500	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	support	$1,218	IE- COOPER- TEXT MARKETING
—	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	support	$87	IE-COOPER-DONATION PROCESSING
—	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	support	$1,219	IE- COOPER- DIGITAL MARKETING
2024-07-09	ADVANCE LIBERTY PAC	support	$35,000	MEDIA BUY

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	HMP	24A	$51,073
2022-12-20	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNIO…	24A	$24,720
2022-12-20	UNITED WE CAN	24A	$24,520
2022-12-20	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNIO…	24A	$24,720
2022-12-20	UNITED WE CAN	24A	$24,520
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-11-17	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	24E	$1
2022-11-15	NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION PAC (RESTAURANT…	24K	$-1,500
2022-11-10	WINRED	24K	$-30
2022-11-09	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$22
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$100
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$14
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$38
2022-11-08	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	24E	$27
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$42
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$84
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$300
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$37
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$150
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$16
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$237
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$118
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$38
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	24E	$150

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	HMP	contributed_to	$51,073	pas2
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$51,074	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$26,273	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$10,172	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$51,074	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$48,570	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$420,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$51,074	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$51,074	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$841,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$48,570	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$22,885	fec_ies
—	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	supports_independently	$87	fec_ies
—	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	supports_independently	$1,218	fec_ies
—	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	supports_independently	$1,219	fec_ies
2024-07-09	ADVANCE LIBERTY PAC	supports_independently	$35,000	fec_ies
2022-12-20	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)	contributed_to	$24,720	pas2
2022-12-20	UNITED WE CAN	contributed_to	$24,520	pas2
2022-12-20	UNITED WE CAN	contributed_to	$24,520	pas2
2022-12-20	SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)	contributed_to	$24,720	pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-17	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	contributed_to	$1	pas2
2022-11-15	NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION PAC (RESTAURANT PAC)	contributed_to	$-1,500	pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-30	pas2
2022-11-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$15	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$38	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$38	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$84	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$100	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$300	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$100	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$38	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$37	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$38	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$84	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$150	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$38	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$42	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$84	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$15	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$300	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$42	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$300	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$150	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$42	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$14	pas2
2022-11-08	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	contributed_to	$27	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$100	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$150	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$22	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$23	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$23	fec_ies
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$38	pas2
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$238	fec_ies
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$150	fec_ies
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$23	fec_ies
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$58	fec_ies
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$57	pas2
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$118	fec_ies
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$118	pas2
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$150	pas2
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$17	fec_ies
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$237	pas2
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$38	fec_ies
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$16	pas2
2022-11-07	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$22	pas2
2022-11-06	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$22	pas2
2022-11-06	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$88	fec_ies
2022-11-06	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$38	fec_ies
2022-11-06	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$23	fec_ies
2022-11-06	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$38	pas2
2022-11-06	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$88	pas2
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$36	pas2
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$263	fec_ies
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$55	pas2
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$23	fec_ies
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$28	fec_ies
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$95	fec_ies
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$22	pas2
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$94	pas2
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$88	fec_ies
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$200	pas2
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$38	pas2
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$200	fec_ies
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$87	pas2
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$37	fec_ies
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$38	fec_ies
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	contributed_to	$27	pas2
2022-11-05	AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	supports_independently	$55	fec_ies

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	COOPER FOR AZ-04	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	KELLY COOPER FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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