LUCIER, DAVID
OTHER Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2AZ09241- Internal id
e7043c7f-698d-454a-b597-e434390c9ebd- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-09. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 863,227 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $78,678 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $37,800 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.8% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.427 |
| Race | White alone | 62.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.5% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.2% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 31.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 17.7% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 10.1% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 79.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 17.3% |
| Education | High school or higher | 52.2% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 22.9% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.4% |
| Household | Family households | 69.9% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.59 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 28.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $371,600 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,509 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 0.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 4.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 10.5% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 71.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 15.4% |
Elections
Committees
- LUCIER FOR ARIZONA β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1,583 | $0 | 1 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-14 | VETS FORWARD | support | $1,583 | Text Messaging |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-14 | VETS FORWARD | 24E | $1,582 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (2)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-14 | VETS FORWARD | supports_independently | $1,583 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-07-14 | VETS FORWARD | contributed_to | $1,582 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | LUCIER FOR ARIZONA | β | candidate_committees |