CANEPA, DAVID

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2CA14170
Internal id: 3f143fe9-e0fd-431f-860a-74133d3010b0
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-15. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	738,509
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$149,727
Income	Per-capita income	$74,964
Income	In poverty	7.3%
Income	Unemployed	5.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.486
Race	White alone	30.6%
Race	Black alone	2.6%
Race	Asian alone	37.7%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	25.9%
Race	Two or more races	13.6%
Origin	Foreign-born	39.6%
Language	Speaks English only at home	48.1%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	18.9%
Education	High school or higher	65.2%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	49.1%
Education	Advanced degree	20.2%
Household	Family households	68.4%
Household	Avg household size	2.85
Household	Never married (15+)	35.4%
Housing	Median home value	$1,414,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$2,849
Housing	Single-family detached	51.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	11.8%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	8.9%
Housing	Vacant units	7.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	2.7%
Health	With a disability	9.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	95.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.3%
Commute	Drove alone	55.1%
Commute	Public transit	7.8%
Commute	Worked from home	22.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$6,642	$6,862	$0	$0	$0
2022	$815,538	$815,318	$220	$0	$759,195

Elections

2022 general house · CA-15 — lost_general

Committees

CANEPA FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$0	$12,500	2

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	DMFI PAC	oppose	$2,500	Digital Advertising Production (Estimate)
2022-05-26	DMFI PAC	oppose	$10,000	Digital Advertising Buy

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	DMFI PAC	24A	$2,500
2022-10-10	NATIONAL UNION OF HEALTHCARE WORKERS FEDERAL CO…	24K	$2,100
2022-08-16	NATIONAL UNION OF HEALTHCARE WORKERS FEDERAL CO…	24K	$2,900
2022-07-14	DMFI PAC	24A	$2,500
2022-06-27	CHC BOLD PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-05-30	STAND WITH SANCHEZ	24K	$1,000
2022-05-26	DMFI PAC	24A	$10,000
2022-05-17	CHC BOLD PAC	24K	$5,000
2021-12-20	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS…	24K	$5,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (11)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	DMFI PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
—	DMFI PAC	opposes_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
2022-10-10	NATIONAL UNION OF HEALTHCARE WORKERS FEDERAL COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION	contributed_to	$2,100	pas2
2022-08-16	NATIONAL UNION OF HEALTHCARE WORKERS FEDERAL COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-07-14	DMFI PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-06-27	CHC BOLD PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-05-30	STAND WITH SANCHEZ	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-05-26	DMFI PAC	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2022-05-26	DMFI PAC	contributed_to	$10,000	pas2
2022-05-17	CHC BOLD PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-12-20	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	CANEPA FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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