CHEN, JAY

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2CA39136
Internal id: f7acbdf5-9d3e-4085-ac21-862cce63af22
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-45. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	748,896
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$107,226
Income	Per-capita income	$44,637
Income	In poverty	9.9%
Income	Unemployed	5.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.444
Race	White alone	30.3%
Race	Black alone	2.1%
Race	Asian alone	38.3%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	30.8%
Race	Two or more races	15.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	37.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	46.1%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	20.3%
Education	High school or higher	58.2%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	38.7%
Education	Advanced degree	13.1%
Household	Family households	76.1%
Household	Avg household size	3.11
Household	Never married (15+)	35.1%
Housing	Median home value	$897,800
Housing	Median gross rent	$2,250
Housing	Single-family detached	58.6%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	9.6%
Housing	Vacant units	3.4%
Service	Veterans (18+)	3.3%
Health	With a disability	10.5%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.6%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.0%
Commute	Drove alone	71.1%
Commute	Public transit	1.0%
Commute	Worked from home	14.3%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$26	$0	$6,015	$3,831	$0
2024	$1,231	$5,257	$5,988	$3,831	$1,000
2022	$5,037,026	$5,100,737	$10,014	$6,945	$4,403,704
2020	$0	$990	$73,726	$0	$0
2018	$385,048	$310,332	$74,716	$0	$186,142
2014	$143,323	$222,278	$0	$0	$0
2012	$793,549	$714,594	$78,955	$217,000	$545,866

Elections

2012 general house · CA-45 — running
2012 general house · CA-39 — lost_general
2018 general house · CA-39 — lost_general
2018 general house · CA-45 — running
2020 general house · CA-39 — lost_general
2020 general house · CA-45 — running
2022 general house · CA-45 — lost_general

Committees

JAY CHEN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
JAY CHEN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$92,913	$0	34

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL …	support	$450	Cell phone data for text messaging (estimated amt)
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$600	TV Advertisement
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$7,283	15,000 Mailers
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$760	5,000 Postcards
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$3,000	42 60 Second TV Advertisements Run 11/1/22 - 11/7/22
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$3,000	42 60 Second TV Advertisements Run 11/1/22 - 11/7/22
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$760	5,000 Postcards
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$600	TV Advertisement
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$300	Newspaper Ad
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$2,000	TV Advertisement
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$7,283	15,000 Mailers
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL …	support	$1,000	Text messaging consultant (estimated amt)
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL …	support	$2,000	Text messaging platform (estimated amt)
2022-11-04	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$300	Newspaper Ad
2022-11-03	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	support	$2,000	TV Advertisement
2022-11-02	UNITED WE CAN	support	$2,151	Estimated Cost - Newspaper Ads
2022-11-02	UNITED WE CAN	support	$1,250	Estimated Cost - Radio Ads
2022-11-02	UNITED WE CAN	support	$1,250	Estimated Cost - Newspaper Ads
2022-10-31	UNITED WE CAN	support	$636	Estimated Cost - Magazine Advertising
2022-10-29	WORKING AMERICA	support	$7,000	Digital Advertising
2022-10-28	UNITED WE CAN	support	$1,800	Estimated Cost - Radio Advertising
2022-10-27	UNITED WE CAN	support	$5,000	Estimated Cost - Digital Advertising
2022-10-27	UNITED WE CAN	support	$1,500	Estimated Cost - Digital Ad Production
2022-10-27	UNITED WE CAN	support	$2,000	Estimated Cost - Digital Advertising
2022-10-21	UNITED WE CAN	support	$16	Estimated Cost - Texting Services

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$600
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$23
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$10,000
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$209
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$88
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$759
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$56
2022-12-20	ACTIVATE AMERICA	24E	$550
2022-12-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO…	24E	$6
2022-12-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO…	24E	$15
2022-12-08	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO…	24E	$294
2022-12-08	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO…	24E	$94
2022-12-08	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO…	24E	$84
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$209
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$88
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$56
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$23
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$209
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$1,037
2022-11-22	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL …	24E	$2,041
2022-11-18	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	24E	$600
2022-11-17	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL …	24E	$377
2022-11-17	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL …	24E	$443
2022-11-15	EQUALITY CALIFORNIA FEDERAL PAC	24Z	$1,838
2022-11-14	PLANNED PARENTHOOD AFFILIATES OF CALIFORNIA VOT…	24E	$5,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$600	24E	fec_pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$10,000	24E	fec_pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$209	24E	fec_pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$759	24E	fec_pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$88	24E	fec_pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$56	24E	fec_pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$23	24E	fec_pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$600		pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$88		pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$56		pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$759		pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$209		pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$10,000		pas2
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$23		pas2
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	supports_independently	$1,000		fec_ies
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	supports_independently	$450		fec_ies
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	supports_independently	$2,000		fec_ies
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$7,283		fec_ies
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$2,000		fec_ies
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$600		fec_ies
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$760		fec_ies
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$760		fec_ies
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$300		fec_ies
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$3,000		fec_ies
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$600		fec_ies
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$3,000		fec_ies
—	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$7,283		fec_ies
2022-12-20	ACTIVATE AMERICA	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$550	24E	fec_pas2
2022-12-20	ACTIVATE AMERICA	contributed_to	$550		pas2
2022-12-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	contributed_to	$6		pas2
2022-12-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$6	24E	fec_pas2
2022-12-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	contributed_to	$15		pas2
2022-12-19	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$15	24E	fec_pas2
2022-12-08	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$294	24E	fec_pas2
2022-12-08	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$84	24E	fec_pas2
2022-12-08	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$94	24E	fec_pas2
2022-12-08	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	contributed_to	$84		pas2
2022-12-08	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	contributed_to	$294		pas2
2022-12-08	PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	contributed_to	$94		pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$209	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$56	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$88	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$23	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$88		pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,037	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$209	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$209		pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$56		pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$23		pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$1,037		pas2
2022-11-30	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$209		pas2
2022-11-22	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,041	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-22	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	contributed_to	$2,041		pas2
2022-11-18	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$600	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-18	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$600		pas2
2022-11-17	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$443	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-17	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	contributed_to	$443		pas2
2022-11-17	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	contributed_to	$377		pas2
2022-11-17	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$377	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-15	EQUALITY CALIFORNIA FEDERAL PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,838	24Z	fec_pas2
2022-11-15	EQUALITY CALIFORNIA FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$1,838		pas2
2022-11-14	PLANNED PARENTHOOD AFFILIATES OF CALIFORNIA VOTES PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-14	PLANNED PARENTHOOD AFFILIATES OF CALIFORNIA VOTES PAC	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-11-10	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF TEAMSTERS	contributed_to	$8,498		pas2
2022-11-10	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF TEAMSTERS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$8,498	24F	fec_pas2
2022-11-09	TRANSPORT WORKERS UNION OF AMERICA POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-2,500		pas2
2022-11-08	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$450	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$450		pas2
2022-11-08	HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,622	24Z	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$8,954		pas2
2022-11-08	HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN PAC	contributed_to	$2,622		pas2
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$8,954	24F	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS AFL-CIO	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$211	24F	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	UCA POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-11-08	HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN FUND	contributed_to	$3,015		pas2
2022-11-08	HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$3,015	24F	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$211		pas2
2022-11-08	UCA POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$18	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$7	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$111	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	contributed_to	$111		pas2
2022-11-08	COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	contributed_to	$18		pas2
2022-11-08	COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	contributed_to	$7		pas2
2022-11-07	INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- POLITICAL ACTION FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-07	INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- POLITICAL ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-11-07	ACTIVATE AMERICA	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$441	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-07	ACTIVATE AMERICA	contributed_to	$441		pas2
2022-11-07	SUPPORTING HOUSE PROBLEM SOLVERS - SHP PAC	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-11-07	SUPPORTING HOUSE PROBLEM SOLVERS - SHP PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-06	CLF	contributed_to	$2,100		pas2
2022-11-06	CLF	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,100	24A	fec_pas2
2022-11-06	BLUE MOMENTUM PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-06	BLUE MOMENTUM PAC	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-11-04	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-04	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-11-04	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$300	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-04	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-04	PIVOT VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$300		pas2
2022-11-04	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-5,000		pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	JAY CHEN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	JAY CHEN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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