ORTEGA, MICHAEL
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2CA46149- Internal id
4c36d17a-49d3-4627-b236-65a75c55a2d4- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-46. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 757,342 |
| People | Median age | 35 |
| Income | Median household income | $89,883 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $32,759 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.426 |
| Race | White alone | 24.8% |
| Race | Black alone | 1.8% |
| Race | Asian alone | 15.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 65.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 24.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 38.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 31.4% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 53.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 47.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 22.6% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 6.3% |
| Household | Family households | 73.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.41 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 43.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $748,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,122 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 39.9% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 20.9% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 3.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 2.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 9.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 70.3% |
| Commute | Public transit | 2.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 10.1% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $1 | $15 | $11 | $2,175 | $0 |
| 2022 | $63,440 | $63,415 | $25 | $1,575 | $62,098 |
Elections
- 2022 general house Β· CA-46 β lost_general
Committees
- ORTEGA FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Connected on the graph
Inbound (41)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-08 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $18 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-08 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $111 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-08 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $7 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-03 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $92 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-03 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-01 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $185 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-27 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $148 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-27 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-12 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $4 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-12 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $63 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-12 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-12 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $24 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-12 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-22 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-22 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-08 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $9 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-01 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $8 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-25 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $12 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-25 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $7 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-25 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-04 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $8 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-21 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-21 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $7 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-07 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-07 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $21 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-07 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $9 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-03 | REBELLION PAC | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-26 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $38 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $11 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $23 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $61 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $16 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $17 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $32 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $9 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $4 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC | contributed_to | $2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-19 | BLUE AMERICA PAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $110 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-05 | BLUE AMERICA PAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $87 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | ORTEGA FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |