FISCHER, JASON

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2FL04187
Internal id: f547d709-9152-4b36-a3a0-2c465bf235d7
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), FL-04. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	797,286
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$71,083
Income	Per-capita income	$36,995
Income	In poverty	14.3%
Income	Unemployed	5.1%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.453
Race	White alone	54.0%
Race	Black alone	30.5%
Race	Asian alone	2.7%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	9.8%
Race	Two or more races	8.9%
Origin	Foreign-born	7.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	89.6%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	6.0%
Education	High school or higher	58.1%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	27.2%
Education	Advanced degree	9.0%
Household	Family households	65.8%
Household	Avg household size	2.54
Household	Never married (15+)	33.1%
Housing	Median home value	$285,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,359
Housing	Single-family detached	69.5%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.0%
Housing	Vacant units	9.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	12.3%
Health	With a disability	15.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.2%
Commute	Drove alone	72.2%
Commute	Public transit	1.0%
Commute	Worked from home	14.1%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$52,201	$52,201	$0	$0	$52,201

Elections

2022 general house · FL-4 — lost_general

Committees

JASON FISCHER FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$226,795	$0	3

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-06-06	FLORIDA TRUST	support	$67,350	Advertising, Television Buy
2022-05-31	FLORIDA TRUST	support	$10,295	Direct Mail
2022-05-17	FLORIDA TRUST	support	$149,150	Advertising

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-11-08	KEEP FLORIDA RED	24K	$-1,000
2022-06-30	WINRED	24K	$-2,900
2022-06-30	WINRED	24K	$-2,900
2022-06-30	WINRED	24K	$-5,800
2022-06-21	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-06-21	WINRED	24K	$-1,000
2022-06-19	WINRED	24K	$-200
2022-06-16	WINRED	24K	$-3,600
2022-06-15	WINRED	24K	$-500
2022-06-15	WINRED	24K	$-250
2022-06-15	WINRED	24K	$-200
2022-06-15	WINRED	24K	$-250
2022-06-06	FLORIDA TRUST	24E	$67,350
2022-06-06	KEEP FLORIDA RED	24K	$1,000
2022-05-31	FLORIDA TRUST	24E	$10,294
2022-05-17	FLORIDA TRUST	24E	$149,150

Connected on the graph

Inbound (19)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-11-08	KEEP FLORIDA RED	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2022-06-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5,800	pas2
2022-06-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-06-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-06-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-06-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2022-06-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$-200	pas2
2022-06-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3,600	pas2
2022-06-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2022-06-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-200	pas2
2022-06-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-250	pas2
2022-06-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-250	pas2
2022-06-06	FLORIDA TRUST	contributed_to	$67,350	pas2
2022-06-06	FLORIDA TRUST	supports_independently	$67,350	fec_ies
2022-06-06	KEEP FLORIDA RED	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-05-31	FLORIDA TRUST	contributed_to	$10,294	pas2
2022-05-31	FLORIDA TRUST	supports_independently	$10,295	fec_ies
2022-05-17	FLORIDA TRUST	supports_independently	$149,150	fec_ies
2022-05-17	FLORIDA TRUST	contributed_to	$149,150	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	JASON FISCHER FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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