STURGILL, SCOTT

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2FL07214
Internal id: 7c9f2d77-d7be-4901-b6f3-8cdd8302eafa
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), FL-07. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	789,605
People	Median age	42
Income	Median household income	$81,536
Income	Per-capita income	$43,482
Income	In poverty	9.2%
Income	Unemployed	4.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.438
Race	White alone	64.8%
Race	Black alone	9.7%
Race	Asian alone	4.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	21.9%
Race	Two or more races	14.0%
Origin	Foreign-born	12.7%
Language	Speaks English only at home	79.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	14.4%
Education	High school or higher	61.9%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	36.9%
Education	Advanced degree	12.8%
Household	Family households	66.0%
Household	Avg household size	2.48
Household	Never married (15+)	29.9%
Housing	Median home value	$354,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,748
Housing	Single-family detached	64.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	0.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.2%
Housing	Vacant units	9.7%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.9%
Health	With a disability	13.7%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.9%
Commute	Drove alone	69.7%
Commute	Public transit	0.4%
Commute	Worked from home	19.3%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$1,000	$10,570	$14	$25,662	$0
2022	$321,786	$312,203	$9,584	$32,021	$304,228

Elections

2022 general house · FL-7 — lost_general

Committees

SCOTT STURGILL FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-08-19	WINRED	24K	$-500
2022-08-09	NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION POLITIC…	24K	$2,500
2022-03-29	BLUE AND GOLD FUND	24K	$2,900
2022-03-11	FREEDOM PROJECT; THE	24K	$1,000
2022-02-18	BUILDING AMERICA'S REPUBLICAN REPRESENTATION PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-02-07	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-02-07	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-02-07	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-02-04	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-01-20	FRIENDS OF MIKE H	24K	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (10)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-08-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2022-08-09	NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-03-29	BLUE AND GOLD FUND	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-03-11	FREEDOM PROJECT; THE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-18	BUILDING AMERICA'S REPUBLICAN REPRESENTATION PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-02-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-02-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-02-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-02-04	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-01-20	FRIENDS OF MIKE H	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	SCOTT STURGILL FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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