RAYNER, MICHELE K. MS.

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2FL13246
Internal id: 0812ac50-0cec-413c-9b4c-61fd6bc71f5c
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), FL-13. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	769,211
People	Median age	51
Income	Median household income	$72,731
Income	Per-capita income	$47,331
Income	In poverty	11.0%
Income	Unemployed	4.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.482
Race	White alone	76.3%
Race	Black alone	7.0%
Race	Asian alone	3.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	11.6%
Race	Two or more races	9.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	12.7%
Language	Speaks English only at home	83.7%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	7.7%
Education	High school or higher	61.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	35.1%
Education	Advanced degree	12.8%
Household	Family households	56.7%
Household	Avg household size	2.22
Household	Never married (15+)	28.3%
Housing	Median home value	$351,800
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,641
Housing	Single-family detached	48.1%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.1%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.0%
Housing	Vacant units	18.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.6%
Health	With a disability	16.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.3%
Commute	Drove alone	68.3%
Commute	Public transit	1.3%
Commute	Worked from home	19.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$566,664	$566,664	$0	$0	$448,731

Elections

2022 general house · FL-13 — running

Committees

MICHELE FOR FLORIDA, INC. — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-06-30	L PAC	24K	$500
2022-06-06	RIPPLE OF HOPE PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-06-01	EQUALITY PAC	24K	$-5,000
2022-06-01	EQUALITY PROJECT PAC	24K	$-2,900
2022-06-01	EQUALITY PROJECT PAC	24K	$-2,900
2022-06-01	MORE PERFECT UNION PAC	24K	$-2,100
2022-06-01	MORE PERFECT UNION PAC	24K	$-2,900
2022-06-01	LA BAMBA PAC	24K	$-2,900
2022-06-01	EQUALITY PAC	24K	$-5,000
2022-06-01	INLAND EMPIRE STRIKES PAC; THE	24K	$-1,000
2022-06-01	LA BAMBA PAC	24K	$-2,900
2022-04-18	ELECT BLACK WOMEN PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-03-31	MORE PERFECT UNION PAC	24K	$900
2022-03-31	MORE PERFECT UNION PAC	24K	$2,100
2022-03-31	INLAND EMPIRE STRIKES PAC; THE	24K	$1,000
2022-03-31	HIGHER HEIGHTS FOR AMERICA PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-03-31	CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-03-30	BEND THE ARC JEWISH ACTION INC. PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-03-25	HER BOLD MOVE ACTION	24K	$1,000
2022-03-16	L PAC	24K	$3,000
2022-03-02	MORE PERFECT UNION PAC	24K	$1,500
2021-12-30	MORE PERFECT UNION PAC	24K	$500
2021-12-29	HER TIME PAC	24K	$1,000
2021-12-21	LA BAMBA PAC	24K	$2,900
2021-12-17	PUTTING NEW HAMPSHIRE FIRST	24K	$1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (40)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-06-30	L PAC	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-06-06	RIPPLE OF HOPE PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-01	EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2022-06-01	MORE PERFECT UNION	contributed_to	$-2,100	pas2
2022-06-01	MORE PERFECT UNION	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-06-01	EQUALITY PROJECT PAC	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-06-01	EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2022-06-01	EQUALITY PROJECT PAC	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-06-01	LA BAMBA PAC	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-06-01	LA BAMBA PAC	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-06-01	INLAND EMPIRE STRIKES PAC; THE	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2022-04-18	ELECT BLACK WOMEN PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-31	HIGHER HEIGHTS FOR AMERICA PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-31	MORE PERFECT UNION	contributed_to	$2,100	pas2
2022-03-31	MORE PERFECT UNION	contributed_to	$900	pas2
2022-03-31	CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-03-31	INLAND EMPIRE STRIKES PAC; THE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-30	BEND THE ARC JEWISH ACTION INC. PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-03-25	HER BOLD MOVE ACTION	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-16	L PAC	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2022-03-02	MORE PERFECT UNION	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2021-12-30	MORE PERFECT UNION	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2021-12-29	HER TIME PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-12-21	LA BAMBA PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2021-12-17	PUTTING NEW HAMPSHIRE FIRST	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-12-15	POLICY IS PERSONAL PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-12-02	EQUALITY PROJECT PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2021-12-02	EQUALITY PROJECT PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2021-11-29	LA BAMBA PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2021-10-28	RIPPLE OF HOPE PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-09-29	ELECT DEMOCRATIC WOMEN	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-09-29	WAY TO LEAD PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2021-09-27	L PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-09-13	RIPPLE OF HOPE PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-08-30	THE COLLECTIVE PAC	contributed_to	$4,000	pas2
2021-07-08	CICILLINE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-07-08	CICILLINE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-06-29	LGBTQ VICTORY FUND FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2021-06-29	EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-06-29	EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	MICHELE FOR FLORIDA, INC.	—		candidate_committees

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