COLLINS, JAY
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2FL14251- Internal id
509858e1-fe19-468a-b809-699f1d1ba0df- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), FL-15. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 813,472 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $71,624 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $38,483 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.7% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.466 |
| Race | White alone | 54.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 14.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.2% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 27.5% |
| Race | Two or more races | 18.0% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 16.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 72.2% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 19.8% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 33.9% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 12.9% |
| Household | Family households | 64.8% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.60 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 34.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $326,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,490 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 53.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.0% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 3.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.2% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 4.7% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 67.0% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.7% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 19.4% |
Elections
- 2022 general house Β· FL-15 β lost_general
Committees
- AMERICAN WARRIORS PAC β independent Β· type N
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $13,333 | $0 | 1 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-13 | SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P⦠| support | $13,333 | Digital Advertising |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-13 | SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P⦠| 24E | $13,333 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (2)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-13 | SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC | supports_independently | $13,333 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-05-13 | SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC | contributed_to | $13,333 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | independent_committee_of | AMERICAN WARRIORS PAC | β | candidate_committees |