GRYDER, SCOTT

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2IL14102
Internal id: 85d4a4d1-e949-4898-8a7d-53ee69a10f9c
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), IL-14. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	763,833
People	Median age	37
Income	Median household income	$95,523
Income	Per-capita income	$42,848
Income	In poverty	9.2%
Income	Unemployed	5.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.426
Race	White alone	61.9%
Race	Black alone	9.2%
Race	Asian alone	5.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	23.9%
Race	Two or more races	14.3%
Origin	Foreign-born	13.5%
Language	Speaks English only at home	75.9%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	16.6%
Education	High school or higher	60.4%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	34.2%
Education	Advanced degree	12.9%
Household	Family households	71.0%
Household	Avg household size	2.76
Household	Never married (15+)	34.9%
Housing	Median home value	$280,800
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,263
Housing	Single-family detached	71.5%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.4%
Housing	Vacant units	4.7%
Service	Veterans (18+)	4.8%
Health	With a disability	10.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.7%
Commute	Drove alone	74.6%
Commute	Public transit	1.3%
Commute	Worked from home	12.9%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$250	$1,700	$1,583	$0	$0
2024	$2,249	$12,456	$3,033	$0	$15
2022	$658,299	$645,059	$13,239	$43,217	$393,451

Elections

2022 general house · IL-14 — lost_general

Committees

GRYDER FOR IL-14 — principal · type H
SCOTT GRYDER FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$7,753	$869,377	16

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$1,445	Mail Production (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$26,837	Mail Production + Postage (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$26,837	Mail Production + Postage (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$675	Research Consulting (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$43	Research Consulting (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$26,837	Mail Production and Postage (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$43	Research Consulting (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$26,837	Mail Production and Postage (Estimate)
—	HMP	oppose	$20,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$12,044	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$1,180	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$143,806	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$431,419	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$151,375	Television Advertising - Estimate
2022-10-24	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	support	$2,753	Direct mail
2022-10-06	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	support	$5,000	Digital advertising (production and placement)

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-12-22	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-11-27	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-11-27	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-11-17	WINRED	24K	$-3
2022-11-17	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-11-13	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-11-10	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-11-10	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	24N	$3,305
2022-11-08	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-11-08	HMP	24A	$1,179
2022-11-07	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-11-03	HMP	24A	$431,418
2022-11-02	WINRED	24K	$-500
2022-11-02	HMP	24A	$12,044
2022-11-02	HMP	24A	$151,375
2022-11-01	EDF ACTION VOTES	24A	$42
2022-11-01	HMP	24A	$143,806
2022-11-01	EDF ACTION VOTES	24A	$26,836
2022-10-31	HMP	24A	$20,000
2022-10-31	LET'S ALL KEEP ELECTING REPUBLICANS PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-10-30	WINRED	24K	$-10

Connected on the graph

Inbound (89)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$12,044	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,180	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$143,806	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$431,419	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$151,375	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$43	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$26,837	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$1,445	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$26,837	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$26,837	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$675	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$43	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$26,837	fec_ies
2022-12-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2	pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$3,305	pas2
2022-11-08	HMP	contributed_to	$1,179	pas2
2022-11-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-03	HMP	contributed_to	$431,418	pas2
2022-11-02	HMP	contributed_to	$151,375	pas2
2022-11-02	WINRED	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2022-11-02	HMP	contributed_to	$12,044	pas2
2022-11-01	HMP	contributed_to	$143,806	pas2
2022-11-01	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$42	pas2
2022-11-01	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$26,836	pas2
2022-10-31	LET'S ALL KEEP ELECTING REPUBLICANS PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-31	HMP	contributed_to	$20,000	pas2
2022-10-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-10-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-10-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-10-28	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$26,836	pas2
2022-10-28	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$42	pas2
2022-10-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-10-27	GLENN GROTHMAN FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-24	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	contributed_to	$2,752	pas2
2022-10-24	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	supports_independently	$2,753	fec_ies
2022-10-21	COUNTRY OVER PARTY PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-20	ILLINOIS ROAD & TRANSPORTATION BUILDERS ASSOCIATION FED PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-20	ILLINOIS ROAD & TRANSPORTATION BUILDERS ASSOCIATION FED PAC	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2022-10-20	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$4,188	pas2
2022-10-19	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$1,407	pas2
2022-10-19	STAR PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-17	VICTORY AND FREEDOM PAC (VAF PAC)	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-17	BE VICTORIOUS OVER DEMOCRATS PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-17	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$26,836	pas2
2022-10-17	ILLINOIS REPUBLICAN PARTY - FEDERAL	contributed_to	$15,178	pas2
2022-10-12	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$4,188	pas2
2022-10-11	INVEST IN A STRONG AND SECURE AMERICA	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-10-10	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$675	pas2
2022-10-10	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$26,836	pas2
2022-10-10	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$1,445	pas2
2022-10-06	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
2022-10-06	RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-10-04	REPUBLICANS UNITED TO DEFEND YOU PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-03	DOLD FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-01	ILLINOIS CORN GROWERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FUND-FEDERAL	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-09-29	AMERICAN SUPPLY ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-29	CLF	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-09-28	HELLFIRE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-20	AMERICAN LAND TITLE ASSOCIATION TITLE INDUSTRY PAC (TIPAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-09-19	ILLINOIS ROAD & TRANSPORTATION BUILDERS ASSOCIATION FED PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-12	OLD NATIONAL BANK PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-600	pas2
2022-08-30	MARQUIS MASTER SC, INC. PAC (MARQUIS PAC)	contributed_to	$2,700	pas2
2022-08-29	ADRIAN SMITH FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-08-26	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF CONVENIENCE STORES POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-08-26	FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPORATION PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-25	FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL INC PAC 2001	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-19	JASON SMITH FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-08-19	RON ESTES FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-11	VOLUNTEERS FOR SHIMKUS	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-07-18	ABRAHAM LINCOLN LEADERSHIP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-07-18	LAHOOD FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-07-15	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-07-15	SCALISE FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-06-17	ILLINOIS CORN GROWERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FUND-FEDERAL	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-05-25	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS LOCAL 150 POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-05-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	SCOTT GRYDER FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	GRYDER FOR IL-14	—		candidate_committees

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