BARNES-ISRAEL, STU

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2IN09258
Internal id: 99212842-74df-4219-8d7f-0da76e000be5
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), IN-09. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	760,136
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$71,567
Income	Per-capita income	$37,127
Income	In poverty	12.1%
Income	Unemployed	3.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.437
Race	White alone	88.1%
Race	Black alone	2.6%
Race	Asian alone	2.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	4.4%
Race	Two or more races	5.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	3.7%
Language	Speaks English only at home	94.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.7%
Education	High school or higher	62.1%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	27.4%
Education	Advanced degree	10.9%
Household	Family households	62.9%
Household	Avg household size	2.39
Household	Never married (15+)	30.7%
Housing	Median home value	$223,100
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,024
Housing	Single-family detached	71.6%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.7%
Housing	Vacant units	8.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.9%
Health	With a disability	15.3%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	88.2%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.7%
Commute	Drove alone	76.5%
Commute	Public transit	0.4%
Commute	Worked from home	10.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$2,471	$0	$0	$0
2024	$1	$4,800	$2,471	$0	$0
2022	$484,419	$477,149	$7,270	$0	$353,052

Elections

2022 general house · IN-9 — lost_general

Committees

STU FOR INDIANA — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$909,541	$88,989	9

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HOOSIER VALUES	support	$8,000	Media Production
—	HOOSIER VALUES	support	$250,694	Media Placement
2022-04-27	HOOSIER VALUES	support	$18,541	Mail Production, Printing, & Postage
2022-04-25	WITH HONOR FUND, INC.	support	$5,971	Billboard Advertising
2022-04-21	HOOSIER VALUES	support	$18,541	Mail Production, Printing, & Postage
2022-04-20	HOOSIER VALUES	support	$18,541	Mail Production, Printing, & Postage
2022-04-20	HOOSIER VALUES	support	$504,254	Media Placement
2022-04-14	HOOSIER VALUES	support	$85,000	Media Placement
2022-04-01	INDIANA LEADS PAC	oppose	$88,989	IE-Barnes-Media Production/Media Buy

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-04-29	FREEDOM PROJECT; THE	24K	$1,000
2022-04-27	HOOSIER VALUES	24E	$18,540
2022-04-27	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-04-26	AMERICAN PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE ASSOCIATIO…	24K	$5,000
2022-04-25	WITH HONOR FUND, INC.	24E	$5,970
2022-04-21	HOOSIER VALUES	24E	$18,540
2022-04-20	HOOSIER VALUES	24E	$8,000
2022-04-20	HOOSIER VALUES	24E	$18,540
2022-04-20	HOOSIER VALUES	24E	$504,254
2022-04-18	ROAD TO FREEDOM CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	24K	$1,000
2022-04-15	WARRIOR DIPLOMAT PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-04-14	HOOSIER VALUES	24E	$85,000
2022-04-14	HOOSIER VALUES	24E	$250,693
2022-04-13	SOUTHERN INDIANA FREEDOM PAC	24E	$9,765
2022-04-12	CHAMPION AMERICAN VALUES	24K	$2,500
2022-04-01	INDIANA LEADS PAC	24A	$88,989
2022-03-31	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P…	24K	$5,000
2022-03-31	VALOR PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-03-24	PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL CORPORATION PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-03-24	CGCN PAC	24K	$500
2022-03-16	CGB ENTERPRISES INC PAC (CGB PAC)	24K	$1,000
2022-03-14	FRONTLINE PATRIOTS	24K	$2,500
2022-03-08	CROSSPARTISAN PAC II	24K	$5,000
2022-02-23	REPUBLICAN MAJORITY FUND	24K	$2,500
2022-02-19	WINRED	24K	$-1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (34)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	HOOSIER VALUES	supports_independently	$8,000	fec_ies
—	HOOSIER VALUES	supports_independently	$250,694	fec_ies
2022-04-29	FREEDOM PROJECT; THE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-04-27	HOOSIER VALUES	supports_independently	$18,541	fec_ies
2022-04-27	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-04-27	HOOSIER VALUES	contributed_to	$18,540	pas2
2022-04-26	AMERICAN PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (INSURING AMERICA PAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-04-25	WITH HONOR FUND, INC.	contributed_to	$5,970	pas2
2022-04-25	WITH HONOR FUND, INC.	supports_independently	$5,971	fec_ies
2022-04-21	HOOSIER VALUES	contributed_to	$18,540	pas2
2022-04-21	HOOSIER VALUES	supports_independently	$18,541	fec_ies
2022-04-20	HOOSIER VALUES	contributed_to	$8,000	pas2
2022-04-20	HOOSIER VALUES	supports_independently	$18,541	fec_ies
2022-04-20	HOOSIER VALUES	supports_independently	$504,254	fec_ies
2022-04-20	HOOSIER VALUES	contributed_to	$504,254	pas2
2022-04-20	HOOSIER VALUES	contributed_to	$18,540	pas2
2022-04-18	ROAD TO FREEDOM CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-04-15	WARRIOR DIPLOMAT PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-04-14	HOOSIER VALUES	contributed_to	$250,693	pas2
2022-04-14	HOOSIER VALUES	contributed_to	$85,000	pas2
2022-04-14	HOOSIER VALUES	supports_independently	$85,000	fec_ies
2022-04-13	SOUTHERN INDIANA FREEDOM PAC	contributed_to	$9,765	pas2
2022-04-12	CHAMPION AMERICAN VALUES	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-04-01	INDIANA LEADS PAC	opposes_independently	$88,989	fec_ies
2022-04-01	INDIANA LEADS PAC	contributed_to	$88,989	pas2
2022-03-31	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-03-31	VALOR PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-24	PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL CORPORATION PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-24	CGCN PAC	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-03-16	CGB ENTERPRISES INC PAC (CGB PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-14	FRONTLINE PATRIOTS	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-03-08	CROSSPARTISAN PAC II	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-02-23	REPUBLICAN MAJORITY FUND	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-02-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	STU FOR INDIANA	—		candidate_committees

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