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BRAGGS, MARNISHA BRECHE

D Β· house

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FEC candidate id
H2MI26016
Internal id
7908cad4-5c43-439a-a3a3-bccbf24b12ef
Status
challenger

Elections

Committees

No committees on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
D (major party)+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

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