WEILER, TOM

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2MN03104
Internal id: 03ae6ef9-5d8b-498f-9486-cb39231d3cfc
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MN-03. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	708,294
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$109,478
Income	Per-capita income	$62,771
Income	In poverty	6.6%
Income	Unemployed	3.6%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.467
Race	White alone	71.0%
Race	Black alone	9.7%
Race	Asian alone	8.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	5.5%
Race	Two or more races	7.5%
Origin	Foreign-born	13.4%
Language	Speaks English only at home	83.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	3.9%
Education	High school or higher	68.4%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	51.8%
Education	Advanced degree	18.8%
Household	Family households	65.3%
Household	Avg household size	2.45
Household	Never married (15+)	29.4%
Housing	Median home value	$415,100
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,619
Housing	Single-family detached	58.8%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.1%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.1%
Housing	Vacant units	4.1%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.3%
Health	With a disability	9.6%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.1%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.3%
Commute	Drove alone	65.5%
Commute	Public transit	1.6%
Commute	Worked from home	24.1%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$105,397	$56,433	$50,725	$112,570	$36,708
2024	$25	$5,260	$1,761	$59,500	$0
2022	$681,469	$674,472	$6,997	$59,500	$465,357

Elections

2022 general house · MN-3 — lost_general

Committees

WEILER FOR MN-03 — principal · type H
WEILER FOR SENATE — principal · type S

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-11-30	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-11-26	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-11-25	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-11-07	MAKING AMERICA PROSPEROUS PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-11-03	THIRD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT REPUBLICAN PARTY O…	24K	$1,000
2022-11-01	AMODEI FOR NEVADA	24K	$1,000
2022-10-31	CHAMPION AMERICAN VALUES	24K	$2,500
2022-10-31	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-10-27	GLENN GROTHMAN FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-10-27	THE GUARDIAN FUND	24E	$6,323
2022-10-26	DAN CRENSHAW FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-10-26	LET'S ALL KEEP ELECTING REPUBLICANS PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-10-26	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	24K	$5,000
2022-10-24	REPUBLICANS UNITED TO DEFEND YOU PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-10-22	THE GUARDIAN FUND	24E	$722
2022-10-17	BE VICTORIOUS OVER DEMOCRATS PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-10-11	INVEST IN A STRONG AND SECURE AMERICA	24K	$500
2022-10-07	BULLDOG PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-10-03	DR. BRIAN BABIN FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-10-02	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-09-29	AMERICA RELOADED	24K	$5,000
2022-09-29	CLF	24K	$5,000
2022-09-28	MINNESOTA CITIZENS CONCERNED FOR LIFE, INC. FED…	24E	$1,156
2022-09-28	POINT ACTION PAC, INC.	24K	$2,000
2022-09-28	HELLFIRE PAC	24K	$1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (49)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-11-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-25	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-07	MAKING AMERICA PROSPEROUS PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-11-03	THIRD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT REPUBLICAN PARTY OF MINNESOTA	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-01	AMODEI FOR NEVADA	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	CHAMPION AMERICAN VALUES	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-10-31	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-10-27	GUARDIAN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$6,323	pas2
2022-10-27	GLENN GROTHMAN FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-26	DAN CRENSHAW FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-26	LET'S ALL KEEP ELECTING REPUBLICANS PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-26	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-10-24	REPUBLICANS UNITED TO DEFEND YOU PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-22	GUARDIAN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$722	pas2
2022-10-17	BE VICTORIOUS OVER DEMOCRATS PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-11	INVEST IN A STRONG AND SECURE AMERICA	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-10-07	BULLDOG PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-03	DR. BRIAN BABIN FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-02	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-09-29	CLF	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-09-29	AMERICA RELOADED	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-09-28	MINNESOTA CITIZENS CONCERNED FOR LIFE, INC. FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$1,156	pas2
2022-09-28	HELLFIRE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-28	POINT PAC, INC.	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-09-26	AMERICA'S FIRST PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-26	BUILDING LEADERSHIP AND INSPIRING NEW ENTERPRISE PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-09-23	GUARDIAN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,687	pas2
2022-09-13	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-19	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-18	ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (ABC PAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-08-16	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-16	SCALISE FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-08-11	GUY FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-08-11	NRCC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-07-19	GUARDIAN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-30	ARMSTRONG FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-06-28	NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-28	NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-2,000	pas2
2022-06-23	JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-06-22	NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-06-22	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-20	ELECTING MAJORITY MAKING EFFECTIVE REPUBLICANS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-15	FREEDOM CLUB FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-05-13	FREEDOM CLUB FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-12-30	KENDALL FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2021-12-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2021-11-18	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2021-10-28	AMERICA RELOADED	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	WEILER FOR MN-03	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	WEILER FOR SENATE	—		candidate_committees

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