IRWIN, WILLIAM

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2MO04223
Internal id: c2930b29-3f8e-4759-88ee-dd0b94888585
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MO-04. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	782,304
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$67,043
Income	Per-capita income	$34,631
Income	In poverty	13.0%
Income	Unemployed	4.0%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.438
Race	White alone	85.4%
Race	Black alone	4.3%
Race	Asian alone	1.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	5.2%
Race	Two or more races	7.2%
Origin	Foreign-born	2.7%
Language	Speaks English only at home	94.7%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.5%
Education	High school or higher	60.1%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	25.2%
Education	Advanced degree	9.0%
Household	Family households	65.5%
Household	Avg household size	2.50
Household	Never married (15+)	28.4%
Housing	Median home value	$220,200
Housing	Median gross rent	$966
Housing	Single-family detached	73.4%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.9%
Housing	Vacant units	15.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	9.2%
Health	With a disability	16.7%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	87.2%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	9.3%
Commute	Drove alone	75.6%
Commute	Public transit	0.3%
Commute	Worked from home	10.3%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$268,959	$268,959	$0	$0	$98,532

Elections

2022 general house · MO-4 — lost_general

Committees

BILL IRWIN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$65,250	$0	3

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-05-12	CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	support	$29,500	MEDIA - RADIO
2022-05-12	CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	support	$29,500	MEDIA - RADIO
2022-05-05	CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	support	$6,250	MEDIA - VIDEO

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-09-16	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P…	24K	$-5,000
2022-07-21	RANGER PAC	24K	$1,500
2022-06-23	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P…	24K	$5,000
2022-05-24	WINRED	24K	$-250
2022-05-12	CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	24E	$29,500
2022-05-05	CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	24E	$6,250
2022-03-30	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P…	24K	$2,500
2022-03-23	FREEDOM'S DEFENSE FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-03-23	WINRED	24K	$-1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (12)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-09-16	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2022-07-21	RANGER PAC	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-06-23	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-05-24	WINRED	contributed_to	$-250	pas2
2022-05-12	CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	supports_independently	$29,500	fec_ies
2022-05-12	CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	supports_independently	$29,500	fec_ies
2022-05-12	CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	contributed_to	$29,500	pas2
2022-05-05	CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	contributed_to	$6,250	pas2
2022-05-05	CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	supports_independently	$6,250	fec_ies
2022-03-30	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-03-23	FREEDOM'S DEFENSE FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	BILL IRWIN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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