RONNING, PENNY

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2MT02134
Internal id: e84ec091-f03a-405a-bad3-c618cef52b82
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MT-02. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	552,014
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$71,501
Income	Per-capita income	$40,346
Income	In poverty	11.6%
Income	Unemployed	3.8%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.454
Race	White alone	83.5%
Race	Black alone	0.6%
Race	Asian alone	0.7%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	4.7%
Race	Two or more races	6.7%
Origin	Foreign-born	1.8%
Language	Speaks English only at home	96.1%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.2%
Education	High school or higher	61.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	31.4%
Education	Advanced degree	9.8%
Household	Family households	61.4%
Household	Avg household size	2.38
Household	Never married (15+)	28.4%
Housing	Median home value	$311,300
Housing	Median gross rent	$981
Housing	Single-family detached	70.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	5.4%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.7%
Housing	Vacant units	12.4%
Service	Veterans (18+)	9.6%
Health	With a disability	15.2%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	88.6%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.6%
Commute	Drove alone	72.5%
Commute	Public transit	0.7%
Commute	Worked from home	10.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$0	$240	$209	$0	$0
2022	$175,793	$175,464	$329	$0	$149,619

Elections

2022 general house · MT-2 — lost_general

Committees

PENNY RONNING FOR US CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-10-25	ELECT DEMOCRATIC WOMEN	24K	$1,000
2022-10-10	NATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR WOMEN, INC. PAC	24Z	$159
2022-10-09	NATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR WOMEN, INC. PAC	24Z	$159
2022-08-10	BIG SKY VALUES	24K	$1,000
2022-08-05	MAX'S PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-08-03	TREASURE STATE PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-07-21	THE CENTER FOR FREETHOUGHT EQUALITY PAC	24K	$250
2022-07-12	NATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR WOMEN, INC. PAC	24K	$1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (8)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-10-25	ELECT DEMOCRATIC WOMEN	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-10	NATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR WOMEN, INC. PAC	contributed_to	$159	pas2
2022-10-09	NATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR WOMEN, INC. PAC	contributed_to	$159	pas2
2022-08-10	BIG SKY VALUES	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-05	MAX'S PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-03	TREASURE STATE PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-07-21	THE CENTER FOR FREETHOUGHT EQUALITY PAC	contributed_to	$250	pas2
2022-07-12	NATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR WOMEN, INC. PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	PENNY RONNING FOR US CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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