WARD, ASHLEY
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2NC04135- Internal id
1fd62d90-508d-445c-87c9-63ee3bb14b8d- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NC-04. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 769,729 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $102,949 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $54,877 |
| Income | In poverty | 9.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.7% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.460 |
| Race | White alone | 54.6% |
| Race | Black alone | 19.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 11.0% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 11.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 9.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 16.8% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 78.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 9.0% |
| Education | High school or higher | 74.3% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 61.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 29.9% |
| Household | Family households | 63.4% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.45 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 35.2% |
| Housing | Median home value | $463,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,595 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 60.9% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 2.1% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.1% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 6.7% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.1% |
| Health | With a disability | 9.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 94.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 3.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 59.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 28.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $88,271 | $88,271 | $0 | $0 | $71,166 |
Elections
- 2022 general house Β· NC-4 β lost_general
Committees
- FRIENDS OF ASHLEY WARD β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-19 | AMERICAN IDEAL PAC | 24K | $2,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (1)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-19 | AMERICAN IDEAL PAC | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF ASHLEY WARD | β | candidate_committees |