GEELS, COURTNEY JOELE

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2NC13185
Internal id: 13b45322-824c-4c82-a6ed-4fc2033fc466
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NC-04. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	769,729
People	Median age	37
Income	Median household income	$102,949
Income	Per-capita income	$54,877
Income	In poverty	9.1%
Income	Unemployed	3.7%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.460
Race	White alone	54.6%
Race	Black alone	19.2%
Race	Asian alone	11.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	11.6%
Race	Two or more races	9.2%
Origin	Foreign-born	16.8%
Language	Speaks English only at home	78.7%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	9.0%
Education	High school or higher	74.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	61.4%
Education	Advanced degree	29.9%
Household	Family households	63.4%
Household	Avg household size	2.45
Household	Never married (15+)	35.2%
Housing	Median home value	$463,000
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,595
Housing	Single-family detached	60.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.1%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.1%
Housing	Vacant units	6.7%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.1%
Health	With a disability	9.2%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.7%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.3%
Commute	Drove alone	59.4%
Commute	Public transit	1.6%
Commute	Worked from home	28.2%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$55	$35	$20	$0	$0
2022	$409,981	$409,981	$0	$0	$272,432

Elections

2022 general house · NC-4 — lost_general

Committees

COURTNEY GEELS FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$36,000	$0	1

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-10-17	AMERICANS FOR TRANSPARENCY	support	$36,000	DIRECT MAIL

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-12-16	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-11-20	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-11-02	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$26,343
2022-10-20	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE, COUNTY AND MUNICI…	24F	$10,045
2022-10-17	AMERICANS FOR TRANSPARENCY	24E	$36,000
2022-10-15	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$2,141
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$1,586
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$933
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$1,077
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$754
2022-10-05	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$933
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$1,077
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$2,141
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$754
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	24C	$1,586
2022-09-01	WINRED	24K	$-200
2022-08-05	NORTH CAROLINA SOYBEAN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION NC…	24K	$1,000
2022-07-14	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-06-27	MAGGIE'S LIST	24K	$100
2022-06-13	POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE AMERICAN ASSO…	24K	$1,500
2022-06-07	MAGGIE'S LIST	24K	$1,000
2022-04-21	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-01-20	WINRED	24K	$-500
2022-01-13	WINRED	24K	$-50

Connected on the graph

Inbound (43)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2022-12-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-11-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100		pas2
2022-11-02	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$26,343		pas2
2022-11-02	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$26,343	24C	fec_pas2
2022-10-20	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE, COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES, AFL-CIO	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$10,045	24F	fec_pas2
2022-10-20	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE, COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES, AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$10,045		pas2
2022-10-17	AMERICANS FOR TRANSPARENCY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$36,000	24E	fec_pas2
2022-10-17	AMERICANS FOR TRANSPARENCY	supports_independently	$36,000		fec_ies
2022-10-17	AMERICANS FOR TRANSPARENCY	contributed_to	$36,000		pas2
2022-10-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50		pas2
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$1,586		pas2
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$933		pas2
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,141	24C	fec_pas2
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$933	24C	fec_pas2
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,586	24C	fec_pas2
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$754	24C	fec_pas2
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,077	24C	fec_pas2
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$754		pas2
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$1,077		pas2
2022-10-14	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$2,141		pas2
2022-10-05	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$933		pas2
2022-10-05	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$933	24C	fec_pas2
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,141	24C	fec_pas2
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$754	24C	fec_pas2
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,586	24C	fec_pas2
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,077	24C	fec_pas2
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$2,141		pas2
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$754		pas2
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$1,586		pas2
2022-09-20	NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PARTY	contributed_to	$1,077		pas2
2022-09-01	WINRED	contributed_to	$-200		pas2
2022-08-05	NORTH CAROLINA SOYBEAN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION NC SOYPAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-08-05	NORTH CAROLINA SOYBEAN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION NC SOYPAC	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-07-14	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100		pas2
2022-06-27	MAGGIE'S LIST	contributed_to	$100		pas2
2022-06-27	MAGGIE'S LIST	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$100	24K	fec_pas2
2022-06-13	POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF ORTHOPAEDIC SURGEONS--PAC OF AAOS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-06-13	POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF ORTHOPAEDIC SURGEONS--PAC OF AAOS	contributed_to	$1,500		pas2
2022-06-07	MAGGIE'S LIST	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-06-07	MAGGIE'S LIST	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-04-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100		pas2
2022-01-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-500		pas2
2022-01-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50		pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	COURTNEY GEELS FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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