LAFAZAN, JOSHUA

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2NY03162
Internal id: 5f3c760c-aab8-4303-aed4-4c2535df9214
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-03. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	770,395
People	Median age	45
Income	Median household income	$139,677
Income	Per-capita income	$69,139
Income	In poverty	5.8%
Income	Unemployed	4.8%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.479
Race	White alone	56.0%
Race	Black alone	3.6%
Race	Asian alone	23.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	15.2%
Race	Two or more races	9.5%
Origin	Foreign-born	27.9%
Language	Speaks English only at home	62.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	10.9%
Education	High school or higher	71.0%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	53.4%
Education	Advanced degree	25.0%
Household	Family households	74.7%
Household	Avg household size	2.82
Household	Never married (15+)	29.4%
Housing	Median home value	$770,400
Housing	Median gross rent	$2,315
Housing	Single-family detached	66.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	12.9%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	3.3%
Housing	Vacant units	4.5%
Service	Veterans (18+)	2.7%
Health	With a disability	10.6%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.3%
Commute	Drove alone	57.5%
Commute	Public transit	14.4%
Commute	Worked from home	16.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$741,311	$723,716	$0	$0	$569,311
2022	$1,979,131	$1,996,727	$-17,596	$204,769	$1,782,635

Elections

2022 general house · NY-3 — lost_general
2024 general house · NY-3 — lost_general

Committees

LAFAZAN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$710,849	$0	6

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-08-18	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$90,000	Non-Contribution Account - Ad Buy - Digital
2022-08-18	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$110,000	Non-Contribution Account - Ad Buy - TV
2022-08-16	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$12,720	Non-Contribution Account - Ad Production
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$12,129	Ad Production
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$201,720	Ad Buy - Digital
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$284,280	Ad Buy - TV

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-11-19	ARTHRITIS KNEE PAIN CENTERS, LLC OSTEOARTHRITIS…	24K	$-2,100
2022-08-22	COMMON GOOD PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-08-22	UA UNION PLUMBERS & PIPEFITTERS VOTE! PAC (UNIT…	24K	$1,000
2022-08-22	NO LABELS PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-08-18	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$90,000
2022-08-18	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$110,000
2022-08-17	HOPE PAC	24K	$500
2022-08-16	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$12,720
2022-08-10	AMERICAN CRYSTAL SUGAR COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION…	24K	$5,000
2022-08-10	BROTHERHOOD OF RAILROAD SIGNALMEN POLITICAL ACT…	24K	$2,900
2022-08-08	FUTURE FORUM PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-08-04	GUARDING AGAINST PANDEMICS PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$201,720
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$12,129
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$284,280
2022-07-22	ARTHRITIS KNEE PAIN CENTERS, LLC OSTEOARTHRITIS…	24K	$2,900
2022-07-22	ARTHRITIS KNEE PAIN CENTERS, LLC OSTEOARTHRITIS…	24K	$2,100

Connected on the graph

Inbound (23)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-11-19	ARTHRITIS KNEE PAIN CENTERS, LLC OSTEOARTHRITIS RELIEF PAC	contributed_to	$-2,100	pas2
2022-08-22	COMMON GOOD FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-22	UA UNION PLUMBERS & PIPEFITTERS VOTE! PAC (UNITED ASSOCIATION OF JOURNEYMEN AND APPRENTICES OF THE PLUMBING & PIPEFITTING INDUSTRY OF THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-22	NO LABELS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-18	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$110,000	fec_ies
2022-08-18	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$110,000	pas2
2022-08-18	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$90,000	pas2
2022-08-18	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$90,000	fec_ies
2022-08-17	HOPE PAC	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-08-16	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$12,720	fec_ies
2022-08-16	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$12,720	pas2
2022-08-10	BROTHERHOOD OF RAILROAD SIGNALMEN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-08-10	AMERICAN CRYSTAL SUGAR COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-08	FUTURE FORUM PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-04	GUARDING AGAINST PANDEMICS PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$284,280	pas2
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$201,720	pas2
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$12,129	fec_ies
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$201,720	fec_ies
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$12,129	pas2
2022-08-01	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$284,280	fec_ies
2022-07-22	ARTHRITIS KNEE PAIN CENTERS, LLC OSTEOARTHRITIS RELIEF PAC	contributed_to	$2,100	pas2
2022-07-22	ARTHRITIS KNEE PAIN CENTERS, LLC OSTEOARTHRITIS RELIEF PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	LAFAZAN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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