CASTELLI, MATT

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2NY21164
Internal id: 38e41f2e-a989-4755-b697-580848bb19ae
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-21. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	770,419
People	Median age	42
Income	Median household income	$70,983
Income	Per-capita income	$38,135
Income	In poverty	13.1%
Income	Unemployed	4.4%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.441
Race	White alone	89.7%
Race	Black alone	2.3%
Race	Asian alone	1.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	3.8%
Race	Two or more races	4.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	3.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	94.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.9%
Education	High school or higher	59.6%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	26.2%
Education	Advanced degree	11.3%
Household	Family households	61.9%
Household	Avg household size	2.27
Household	Never married (15+)	31.4%
Housing	Median home value	$180,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$973
Housing	Single-family detached	70.4%
Housing	Built before 1940	5.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.4%
Housing	Vacant units	20.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.0%
Health	With a disability	16.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	88.6%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.7%
Commute	Drove alone	76.5%
Commute	Public transit	0.4%
Commute	Worked from home	9.2%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$6,783	$74,700	$0	$0
2024	$982	$20,034	$81,483	$0	$0
2022	$2,525,046	$2,424,511	$100,535	$0	$2,474,547

Elections

2022 general house · NY-21 — lost_general

Committees

MATT CASTELLI FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-11-07	JOBS, EDUCATION, & FAMILIES FIRST JEFF PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-11-07	DEMOCRACY DEFENSE FUND	24K	$5,000
2022-11-02	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS, AFL-CIO COMMIT…	24K	$2,000
2022-11-02	UAW - V - CAP (UAW VOLUNTARY COMMUNITY ACTION P…	24K	$5,000
2022-10-27	JOBS, EDUCATION, & FAMILIES FIRST JEFF PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-10-07	MAKING A DIFFERENCE PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-09-29	GRACE FOR NEW YORK	24K	$1,000
2022-09-29	PROGRESSIVES ADVANCING UNITED LEADERSHIP PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-09-12	IMPACT	24K	$5,000
2022-09-06	FRIENDS OF DON BEYER	24K	$2,000
2022-08-25	PAUL TONKO FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-06-23	VOTEVETS	24K	$2,500
2022-03-21	VOTEVETS	24K	$5,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (26)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2022-11-07	DEMOCRACY DEFENSE FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-07	DEMOCRACY DEFENSE FUND	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-11-07	JOBS, EDUCATION, & FAMILIES FIRST JEFF PAC	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-11-07	JOBS, EDUCATION, & FAMILIES FIRST JEFF PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-02	UAW - V - CAP (UAW VOLUNTARY COMMUNITY ACTION PROGRAM) 'INT'L UNION UNITED AUTOMOBILE AEROSPACE & AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENT WORKERS OF AMERICA UAW	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-02	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS, AFL-CIO COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-02	UAW - V - CAP (UAW VOLUNTARY COMMUNITY ACTION PROGRAM) 'INT'L UNION UNITED AUTOMOBILE AEROSPACE & AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENT WORKERS OF AMERICA UAW	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-11-02	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS, AFL-CIO COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-10-27	JOBS, EDUCATION, & FAMILIES FIRST JEFF PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-27	JOBS, EDUCATION, & FAMILIES FIRST JEFF PAC	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-10-07	MAKING A DIFFERENCE PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-07	MAKING A DIFFERENCE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-09-29	GRACE FOR NEW YORK	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-09-29	PROGRESSIVES ADVANCING UNITED LEADERSHIP PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-09-29	GRACE FOR NEW YORK	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-09-29	PROGRESSIVES ADVANCING UNITED LEADERSHIP PAC	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-09-12	IMPACT	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-09-12	IMPACT	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-09-06	FRIENDS OF DON BEYER	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-09-06	FRIENDS OF DON BEYER	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-08-25	PAUL TONKO FOR CONGRESS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-08-25	PAUL TONKO FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-06-23	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-06-23	VOTEVETS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-03-21	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-03-21	VOTEVETS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	MATT CASTELLI FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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