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LARE, JEFF

R · house

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FEC candidate id
H2OH15145
Internal id
668f8c66-04f2-4f5a-a692-a04458131120
Status
challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), OH-15. Source.

CategoryMetricValue
PeoplePopulation794,565
PeopleMedian age37
IncomeMedian household income$78,358
IncomePer-capita income$41,090
IncomeIn poverty12.2%
IncomeUnemployed4.2%
IncomeGini inequality index0.431
RaceWhite alone73.1%
RaceBlack alone11.8%
RaceAsian alone4.2%
RaceHispanic or Latino6.7%
RaceTwo or more races7.8%
OriginForeign-born9.1%
LanguageSpeaks English only at home87.8%
LanguageSpeaks Spanish at home4.4%
EducationHigh school or higher63.4%
EducationBachelor's or higher33.5%
EducationAdvanced degree12.3%
HouseholdFamily households63.1%
HouseholdAvg household size2.44
HouseholdNever married (15+)33.0%
HousingMedian home value$247,700
HousingMedian gross rent$1,272
HousingSingle-family detached63.7%
HousingBuilt before 19403.1%
HousingOvercrowded (>1 per room)2.2%
HousingVacant units5.9%
ServiceVeterans (18+)6.4%
HealthWith a disability13.0%
ConnectivityHouseholds with broadband93.4%
ConnectivityHouseholds with no internet4.8%
CommuteDrove alone73.5%
CommutePublic transit0.7%
CommuteWorked from home15.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

CycleRaisedSpentCash on handDebtsIndiv. contribs.
2026$0$0$2,550$26,474$0
2024$0$0$2,550$26,474$0
2022$338,677$336,127$2,550$26,474$279,777

Elections

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

FeatureΔ P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
R (major party)+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

CycleSupportOpposeIEs
2022$92,240$128,51118

Recent (latest 25)

DateSpenderFor / againstAmountPurpose
—STIVERS FOR CONGRESSsupport$60,740Independent Expenditure- Media Buy
2021-07-28OHIO CONSERVATIVE VICTORY FUNDsupport$31,500Social Media, Television, Radio
2021-07-27CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$166mail production (from advance line 21)
2021-07-26CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$27,218mail production, postage
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$166mail production (from advance line 21)
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$151digital ad production (from advance line 21)
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$27,218mail production, postage
2021-07-20CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$26,500digital ad placement
2021-07-20CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$1,956digital ad production
2021-07-19CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$166mail production (from advance line 21)
2021-07-18CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$27,218mail production, postage
2021-07-15CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$166mail production (from advance line 21)
2021-07-13CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$5,729mail production, postage
2021-07-12CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$166mail production (from advance line 21)
2021-07-12CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$5,729mail production, postage
2021-07-08CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$166mail produciton (from advance line 21)
2021-07-07CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$67data analytics
2021-07-07CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONoppose$5,729mail production, postage

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

DateFrom committeeTypeAmount
2022-10-03GRANGE MUTUAL HOLDING CO. POLITICAL ACTION COMM…24K$1,000
2022-09-07GRANGE MUTUAL HOLDING CO. POLITICAL ACTION COMM…24K$1,000
2022-02-23OHIOHEALTH STAR CORPORATION POLITICAL ACTION CO…24K$250
2022-02-16VSS&P FEDPAC24K$500
2021-11-29INTERNATIONAL UNION OF PAINTERS AND ALLIED TRAD…24K$1,000
2021-11-03PIONEER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE24K$5,000
2021-10-25NISOURCE INC. PAC24K$1,000
2021-08-28WINRED24K$-500
2021-08-24OHIO CONSERVATIVE VICTORY FUND24E$7,700
2021-07-29OHIO CONSERVATIVE VICTORY FUND24E$31,500
2021-07-27CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$166
2021-07-27THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLIT…24K$5,000
2021-07-26CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$27,218
2021-07-23VSS&P FEDPAC24K$500
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$166
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$151
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$27,218
2021-07-20CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$26,500
2021-07-20CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$1,956
2021-07-19POLITICAL EDUCATION PATTERNS POLITICAL ARM INTL…24K$5,000
2021-07-19CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$166
2021-07-18CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$27,218
2021-07-15CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$166
2021-07-13CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$5,728
2021-07-12CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION24A$5,728

Connected on the graph

Inbound (55)

datefromtypeamountrolesource
—STIVERS FOR CONGRESSsupports_independently$60,740fec_ies
2022-10-03GRANGE MUTUAL HOLDING CO. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEEcontributed_to$1,000pas2
2022-09-07GRANGE MUTUAL HOLDING CO. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEEcontributed_to$1,000pas2
2022-02-23OHIOHEALTH STAR CORPORATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE DBA OHIOHEALTH PACcontributed_to$250pas2
2022-02-16VSS&P FEDPACcontributed_to$500pas2
2021-11-29INTERNATIONAL UNION OF PAINTERS AND ALLIED TRADES POLITICAL ACTION TOGETHER POLITICAL COMMITTEEcontributed_to$1,000pas2
2021-11-03PIONEER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEEcontributed_to$5,000pas2
2021-10-25NISOURCE INC. PACcontributed_to$1,000pas2
2021-08-28WINREDcontributed_to$-500pas2
2021-08-24OHIO CONSERVATIVE VICTORY FUNDcontributed_to$7,700pas2
2021-07-29OHIO CONSERVATIVE VICTORY FUNDcontributed_to$31,500pas2
2021-07-28OHIO CONSERVATIVE VICTORY FUNDsupports_independently$31,500fec_ies
2021-07-27THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEEcontributed_to$5,000pas2
2021-07-27CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$166pas2
2021-07-27CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$166fec_ies
2021-07-26CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$27,218pas2
2021-07-26CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$27,218fec_ies
2021-07-23VSS&P FEDPACcontributed_to$500pas2
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$166fec_ies
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$27,218pas2
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$151pas2
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$166pas2
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$151fec_ies
2021-07-22CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$27,218fec_ies
2021-07-20CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$1,956pas2
2021-07-20CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$1,956fec_ies
2021-07-20CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$26,500fec_ies
2021-07-20CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$26,500pas2
2021-07-19CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$166fec_ies
2021-07-19POLITICAL EDUCATION PATTERNS POLITICAL ARM INTL UNION OPERATING ENG LOCAL 18contributed_to$5,000pas2
2021-07-19CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$166pas2
2021-07-18CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$27,218fec_ies
2021-07-18CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$27,218pas2
2021-07-15CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$166fec_ies
2021-07-15CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$166pas2
2021-07-13CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$5,728pas2
2021-07-13CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$5,729fec_ies
2021-07-12CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$5,728pas2
2021-07-12CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$166pas2
2021-07-12CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$5,729fec_ies
2021-07-12CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$166fec_ies
2021-07-08CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$166pas2
2021-07-08CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$166fec_ies
2021-07-07CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$5,728pas2
2021-07-07CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$67fec_ies
2021-07-07CLUB FOR GROWTHcontributed_to$66pas2
2021-07-07CLUB FOR GROWTHopposes_independently$5,729fec_ies
2021-07-01ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. PACcontributed_to$5,000pas2
2021-06-28AUTOMOTIVE FREE INTERNATIONAL TRADE PACcontributed_to$5,000pas2
2021-06-26STIVERS FOR CONGRESScontributed_to$2,000pas2
2021-06-26STIVERS FOR CONGRESScontributed_to$2,000pas2
2021-06-26STIVERS FOR CONGRESScontributed_to$16,994pas2
2021-06-14STIVERS FOR CONGRESScontributed_to$20,664pas2
2021-06-03KEGLER BROWN HILL + RITTER, LPA FEDERAL PACcontributed_to$250pas2
2021-05-27STIVERS FOR CONGRESScontributed_to$261,768pas2

Outbound (1)

datetypetoamountrolesource
—principal_candidate_ofLARE FOR CONGRESS—candidate_committees

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