MONTIEL, CARMEN
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2TX18207- Internal id
f390b945-4bd0-4ad4-9951-5ceff5adf522- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-38. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 788,192 |
| People | Median age | 38 |
| Income | Median household income | $102,662 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $58,622 |
| Income | In poverty | 9.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.497 |
| Race | White alone | 52.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 10.4% |
| Race | Asian alone | 10.3% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 27.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 18.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 22.2% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 66.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 19.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 67.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 50.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 19.0% |
| Household | Family households | 68.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.64 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.2% |
| Housing | Median home value | $373,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,653 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 62.1% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 0.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 3.7% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 6.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.1% |
| Health | With a disability | 9.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 95.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 2.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 69.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.0% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 18.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $147,355 | $142,376 | $5,422 | $11,555 | $130,372 |
| 2024 | $42 | $3,169 | $442 | $0 | $36 |
| 2022 | $126,359 | $122,788 | $3,570 | $0 | $122,959 |
Elections
- 2022 general house Β· TX-18 β running
- 2022 general house Β· TX-38 β running
- 2026 general house Β· TX-38 β running
Committees
- CARMEN FOR CONGRESS 2026 β principal Β· type H
- CARMEN MONTIEL FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | SERVICE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL PAC | 24K | $500 |
| 2022-06-03 | SERVICE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL PAC | 24K | $2,900 |
| 2022-05-31 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-05-31 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-05-31 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-05-31 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2021-12-28 | WINRED | 24K | $-5,800 |
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee CARMEN FOR CONGRESS 2026.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RYDIN, MIKE | HCSS Β· CEO | HOUSTON, TX | 1 | $1,000 |
| PECK JR, JOHN | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | DALLAS, TX | 1 | $521 |
| KAMPOURIS, CAMILLE | SELF EMPLOYED Β· ENTREPRENEUR | NEW YORK, NY | 1 | $500 |
| SLOVACEK, JOSEPH | HOOVER SLOVACEK LLP Β· SENIOR PARTNER & CHAIRMAN | HOUSTON, TX | 1 | $500 |
| WALL, ARVEL MR. | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | PERRYTON, TX | 1 | $500 |
| BIENLIEN, MARK | CIRCLE K Β· PROGRAMMER/ANALYST | HOUSTON, TX | 1 | $104 |
| SHEPHERD, WILL | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | AUSTIN, TX | 1 | $100 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (7)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | SERVICE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL PAC | contributed_to | $500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-03 | SERVICE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL PAC | contributed_to | $2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-31 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-31 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-31 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-31 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2021-12-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | CARMEN MONTIEL FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | CARMEN FOR CONGRESS 2026 | β | candidate_committees |