SINCLAIR, KYLE E MR

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2TX20096
Internal id: e843a312-feb6-4091-b5f8-82fd04976240
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-20. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	783,289
People	Median age	33
Income	Median household income	$62,770
Income	Per-capita income	$30,095
Income	In poverty	17.5%
Income	Unemployed	6.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.438
Race	White alone	37.0%
Race	Black alone	6.5%
Race	Asian alone	3.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	70.7%
Race	Two or more races	39.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	15.4%
Language	Speaks English only at home	55.3%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	40.1%
Education	High school or higher	52.7%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	25.2%
Education	Advanced degree	9.1%
Household	Family households	64.0%
Household	Avg household size	2.75
Household	Never married (15+)	40.7%
Housing	Median home value	$219,400
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,317
Housing	Single-family detached	61.2%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	5.9%
Housing	Vacant units	8.8%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.0%
Health	With a disability	16.3%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.2%
Commute	Drove alone	68.5%
Commute	Public transit	1.7%
Commute	Worked from home	12.9%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$0	$1,539	$0	$0	$0
2022	$293,147	$291,608	$1,539	$0	$266,447

Elections

2022 general house · TX-20 — lost_general

Committees

COMMITTEE TO ELECT KYLE SINCLAIR FOR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 20 — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$2,000	$0	1

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-11-06	REAL REPUBLICAN REFORM PAC	support	$2,000	Texting

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-12-03	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	24E	$4
2022-11-18	REAL REPUBLICAN REFORM PAC	24E	$2,000
2022-11-07	BULLDOG PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-11-06	REAL REPUBLICAN REFORM PAC	24E	$2,000
2022-11-04	BULLDOG PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-11-02	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	24E	$4
2022-11-01	PAM HEALTH POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$2,000
2022-10-26	ALAMO PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-10-25	COMMON SENSE COMMON SOLUTIONS POLITICAL ACTION …	24K	$2,500
2022-10-24	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	24E	$4
2022-10-20	RAPTOR PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-10-02	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	24E	$15
2022-09-15	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P…	24K	$2,500
2022-09-09	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-07-29	WINRED	24K	$-1,000
2022-07-11	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	24K	$5,000
2022-06-05	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-03-29	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	24K	$5,000
2022-02-16	WINRED	24K	$-200
2022-02-03	AMERICA RELOADED	24K	$5,000
2022-01-21	RAZOR PAC	24K	$2,500

Connected on the graph

Inbound (40)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2022-12-03	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	contributed_to	$4		pas2
2022-12-03	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$4	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-18	REAL REPUBLICAN REFORM PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-18	REAL REPUBLICAN REFORM PAC	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-11-07	BULLDOG PAC	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-11-07	BULLDOG PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-06	REAL REPUBLICAN REFORM PAC	supports_independently	$2,000		fec_ies
2022-11-06	REAL REPUBLICAN REFORM PAC	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-11-06	REAL REPUBLICAN REFORM PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-04	BULLDOG PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-04	BULLDOG PAC	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-11-02	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$4	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-02	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	contributed_to	$4		pas2
2022-11-01	PAM HEALTH POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-11-01	PAM HEALTH POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-26	ALAMO PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-26	ALAMO PAC	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-10-25	COMMON SENSE COMMON SOLUTIONS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-10-25	COMMON SENSE COMMON SOLUTIONS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-24	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$4	24E	fec_pas2
2022-10-24	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	contributed_to	$4		pas2
2022-10-20	RAPTOR PAC	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-10-20	RAPTOR PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-02	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$15	24E	fec_pas2
2022-10-02	TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	contributed_to	$15		pas2
2022-09-15	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-09-15	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-09-09	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-09-09	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-07-29	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,000		pas2
2022-07-11	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-07-11	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-06-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100		pas2
2022-03-29	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-03-29	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-02-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-200		pas2
2022-02-03	AMERICA RELOADED	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-02-03	AMERICA RELOADED	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-01-21	RAZOR PAC	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-01-21	RAZOR PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	COMMITTEE TO ELECT KYLE SINCLAIR FOR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 20	—		candidate_committees

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