MICHON, BRANDON

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2VA10257
Internal id: 62dfcd01-1337-4455-ba47-a1130a1bb9d6
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), VA-10. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	802,125
People	Median age	38
Income	Median household income	$162,359
Income	Per-capita income	$65,165
Income	In poverty	5.0%
Income	Unemployed	3.5%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.400
Race	White alone	55.5%
Race	Black alone	8.7%
Race	Asian alone	15.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	18.9%
Race	Two or more races	14.0%
Origin	Foreign-born	25.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	66.9%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	14.7%
Education	High school or higher	72.1%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	55.9%
Education	Advanced degree	24.0%
Household	Family households	77.6%
Household	Avg household size	3.02
Household	Never married (15+)	29.6%
Housing	Median home value	$674,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$2,203
Housing	Single-family detached	58.5%
Housing	Built before 1940	0.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.8%
Housing	Vacant units	3.4%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.3%
Health	With a disability	7.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	96.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	2.1%
Commute	Drove alone	61.9%
Commute	Public transit	1.6%
Commute	Worked from home	26.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$306,620	$306,620	$0	$0	$267,545

Elections

2022 general house · VA-10 — lost_general

Committees

BRANDON MICHON FOR VIRGINIA — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-04-06	WINRED	24K	$-530
2022-03-31	AMERICA STRONG AND FREE PAC INC.	24K	$2,000
2022-03-30	VICTORY AND FREEDOM PAC (VAF PAC)	24K	$1,000
2022-03-29	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-03-18	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-03-09	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-02-06	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-02-05	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-02-02	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-01-28	WINRED	24K	$-50

Connected on the graph

Inbound (12)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2022-04-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-530		pas2
2022-03-31	AMERICA STRONG AND FREE PAC INC.	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-03-31	AMERICA STRONG AND FREE PAC INC.	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-03-30	VICTORY AND FREEDOM PAC (VAF PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-03-30	VICTORY AND FREEDOM PAC (VAF PAC)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-03-29	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100		pas2
2022-03-18	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100		pas2
2022-03-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100		pas2
2022-02-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10		pas2
2022-02-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-02-02	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-01-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50		pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	BRANDON MICHON FOR VIRGINIA	—		candidate_committees

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