YOUNG, LEWIS

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2VT01027
Internal id: 8ff0b947-8986-4501-97c2-e9ae2c2f3b90
Status: challenger

Elections

No elections on file.

Committees

No committees on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

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