BELINSKEY, ROBYN MARIWE

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2WY29017
Internal id: bf9c4a12-4733-47b7-91e9-01197d228947
Status: challenger

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$2,800	$4,344	$-1,544	$0	$2,800

Elections

No elections on file.

Committees

ROBYN FOR WYOMING — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$0	$14,668	4

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	LF PAC	oppose	$1,500	Texting Messaging Services (estimated cost)
—	LF PAC	oppose	$6,551	Direct Mail Production & Postage
2022-08-11	LF PAC	oppose	$67	Text Messaging Data
2022-08-01	LF PAC	oppose	$6,551	Direct Mail Production & Postage

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	LF PAC	24A	$1,442
2022-10-27	LF PAC	24A	$1,442
2022-08-11	LF PAC	24A	$66
2022-08-01	LF PAC	24A	$6,550
2022-08-01	LF PAC	24A	$6,550

Connected on the graph

Inbound (9)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$1,442	pas2
—	LF PAC	opposes_independently	$1,500	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	opposes_independently	$6,551	fec_ies
2022-10-27	LF PAC	contributed_to	$1,442	pas2
2022-08-11	LF PAC	contributed_to	$66	pas2
2022-08-11	LF PAC	opposes_independently	$67	fec_ies
2022-08-01	LF PAC	contributed_to	$6,550	pas2
2022-08-01	LF PAC	contributed_to	$6,550	pas2
2022-08-01	LF PAC	opposes_independently	$6,551	fec_ies

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	ROBYN FOR WYOMING	—		candidate_committees

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