LOW, EVAN
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4CA16239- Internal id
5737afdf-477a-4b4c-bf7a-13bd157ba204- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-16. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 746,476 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $175,126 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $96,270 |
| Income | In poverty | 6.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.511 |
| Race | White alone | 43.6% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 31.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 19.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 13.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 35.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 55.2% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 13.0% |
| Education | High school or higher | 74.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 63.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 34.1% |
| Household | Family households | 69.1% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.70 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $1,851,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,809 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 56.4% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 5.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 7.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 2.7% |
| Health | With a disability | 8.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 95.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 2.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 57.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 2.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 26.9% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $25,710 | $74,737 | $32,208 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $3,717,869 | $3,636,634 | $81,235 | $4,000 | $2,955,557 |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· CA-16 β lost_general
Committees
- EVAN LOW FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $1,197,767 | $485,100 | 42 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | FREEDOM FOR THE PEOPLE PAC | support | $120,000 | Digital Ad Buy (Estimate) |
| β | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | support | $15,395 | Reimbursement for staff expenses |
| β | PROTECTING OUR DEMOCRACY | support | $39,000 | Print Ad Mailer (estimate) |
| β | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | support | $21,111 | Estimated cost for social media ads |
| 2024-11-03 | EQUALITY PROJECT PAC | support | $20,000 | Live Calls |
| 2024-10-31 | EQUALITY PROJECT PAC | support | $30,000 | Live Calls |
| 2024-10-31 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | oppose | $22,308 | DIGITAL ADS |
| 2024-10-30 | EQUALITY PAC | support | $57,048 | Direct Mail |
| 2024-10-29 | EQUALITY PROJECT PAC | support | $20,000 | Direct Mail |
| 2024-10-28 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | support | $6,038 | Reimbursement for phone banking |
| 2024-10-28 | EQUALITY PAC | support | $61,877 | Direct Mail |
| 2024-10-26 | EQUALITY PAC | support | $47,183 | GOTV Text Messaging |
| 2024-10-24 | EQUALITY PAC | support | $77,596 | GOTV Live Calls |
| 2024-10-24 | EQUALITY PAC | support | $57,193 | Direct Mail |
| 2024-10-23 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | oppose | $32,303 | DIRECT MAIL |
| 2024-10-23 | EQUALITY PAC | support | $68,755 | Direct Mail |
| 2024-10-23 | HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN EQUALITY VOTES PAC | support | $211 | Signage |
| 2024-10-22 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | oppose | $28,441 | DIGITAL ADS |
| 2024-10-22 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | oppose | $28,441 | DIGITAL ADS |
| 2024-10-21 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | support | $28,611 | Ad consulting |
| 2024-10-18 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | oppose | $95,929 | DIRECT MAIL |
| 2024-10-18 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | oppose | $110,398 | DIRECT MAIL |
| 2024-10-17 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | oppose | $28,441 | DIGITAL ADS |
| 2024-10-17 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | oppose | $28,441 | DIGITAL ADS |
| 2024-10-16 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | oppose | $110,398 | DIRECT MAIL |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-16 | MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE⦠| 24K | $-5,000 |
| 2025-06-18 | MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE⦠| 24K | $5,000 |
| 2025-02-04 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | 24E | $10,917 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (45)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | PROTECTING OUR DEMOCRACY | supports_independently | $39,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | supports_independently | $21,111 | fec_ies | |
| β | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | supports_independently | $15,395 | fec_ies | |
| β | FREEDOM FOR THE PEOPLE PAC | supports_independently | $120,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-09-16 | MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS & AEROSPACE WORKERS | contributed_to | $-5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-06-18 | MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS & AEROSPACE WORKERS | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-02-04 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | contributed_to | $10,917 | pas2 | |
| 2024-11-03 | EQUALITY PROJECT PAC | supports_independently | $20,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-31 | EQUALITY PROJECT PAC | supports_independently | $30,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-31 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | opposes_independently | $22,308 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-30 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $57,048 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-29 | EQUALITY PROJECT PAC | supports_independently | $20,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-28 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $61,877 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-28 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | supports_independently | $6,038 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-26 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $47,183 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-24 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $57,193 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-24 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $77,596 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | opposes_independently | $32,303 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $68,755 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN EQUALITY VOTES PAC | supports_independently | $211 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-22 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | opposes_independently | $28,441 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-22 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | opposes_independently | $28,441 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-21 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | supports_independently | $28,611 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-18 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | opposes_independently | $95,929 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-18 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | opposes_independently | $110,398 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | opposes_independently | $28,441 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | opposes_independently | $28,441 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $69,901 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS | opposes_independently | $110,398 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $51,820 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN EQUALITY VOTES PAC | supports_independently | $209 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN EQUALITY VOTES PAC | supports_independently | $209 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $48,820 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-07 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | supports_independently | $4,142 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-30 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $49,105 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-26 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | supports_independently | $99,619 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-18 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | supports_independently | $28,611 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-06 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | supports_independently | $12,341 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-03 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | supports_independently | $41,775 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-08-02 | NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION | supports_independently | $417 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-03-03 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $12,571 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-02-29 | VPP | supports_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-02-26 | VPP | supports_independently | $64,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-02-26 | EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND | supports_independently | $26,212 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-02-26 | VPP | supports_independently | $7,500 | fec_ies |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | EVAN LOW FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |