STOKER, MICHAEL BRIAN
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4CA22054- Internal id
4c85afe7-57bf-44e8-8b9a-a871a2328da0- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-22. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 780,759 |
| People | Median age | 31 |
| Income | Median household income | $58,828 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $22,039 |
| Income | In poverty | 22.7% |
| Income | Unemployed | 10.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.441 |
| Race | White alone | 31.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.5% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 74.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 29.8% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 26.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 39.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 56.5% |
| Education | High school or higher | 40.6% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 10.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 3.0% |
| Household | Family households | 78.4% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.44 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 43.9% |
| Housing | Median home value | $285,600 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,189 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.5% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 14.1% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 5.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 3.0% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.6% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 77.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.5% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 4.9% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | $0 | $104 | $0 | $52,884 | $0 |
| 2004 | $7 | $6,459 | $104 | $52,884 | $0 |
| 2002 | $21,564 | $26,678 | $6,557 | $52,884 | $15,598 |
| 2000 | $822,009 | $815,000 | $11,669 | $60,943 | $467,709 |
| 1998 | $40,464 | $40,296 | $4,662 | $0 | $40,209 |
| 1996 | $8,008 | $7,102 | $4,495 | $2,938 | $7,972 |
| 1994 | $251,423 | $247,834 | $3,588 | $25,092 | $241,701 |
Elections
- 1994 general house Β· CA-22 β lost_general
- 1998 general house Β· CA-22 β lost_general
- 2000 general house Β· CA-22 β lost_general
Committees
- STOKER FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- STOKER IN 98 β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | STOKER IN 98 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | STOKER FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |