KERR, JOSEPH
D · house
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- FEC candidate id
H4CA40098- Internal id
e2d06beb-a22c-40fd-b91b-37b14aa390dd- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-40. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 753,713 |
| People | Median age | 42 |
| Income | Median household income | $134,712 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $63,094 |
| Income | In poverty | 7.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.445 |
| Race | White alone | 51.1% |
| Race | Black alone | 1.8% |
| Race | Asian alone | 20.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 25.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 16.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 25.2% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 64.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 15.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 66.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 51.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 19.9% |
| Household | Family households | 73.9% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.79 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 28.9% |
| Housing | Median home value | $988,100 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,640 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 59.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 0.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 4.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 3.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 4.1% |
| Health | With a disability | 9.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 96.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 2.2% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 67.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 21.7% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $2,080,923 | $2,080,923 | $0 | $0 | $660,259 |
Elections
- 2024 general house · CA-40 — lost_general
Committees
- JOE KERR FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $187,501 | $17,272 | 13 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI… | oppose | $17,272 | CANVASSING |
| 2024-11-01 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $1,508 | SMS communications |
| 2024-10-29 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $1,570 | SMS communications |
| 2024-10-26 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $10,000 | Digital advertising |
| 2024-10-23 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $2,500 | Digital advertising |
| 2024-10-09 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $44 | SMS communications |
| 2024-10-09 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $4 | Wages & Benefits |
| 2024-10-03 | FLIP THE 40TH | support | $60,600 | Digital Advertising and Texting |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $125 | Digital advertising |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $168 | Digital advertising |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $61 | Ad Production |
| 2024-02-29 | FLIP THE 40TH | support | $10,920 | Texting |
| 2024-02-08 | FLIP THE 40TH | support | $100,000 | Media Buy |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | LABORERS' INTERNATIONAL UNION OF NORTH AMERICA … | 24K | $2,500 |
| 2025-11-10 | UA UNION PLUMBERS & PIPEFITTERS VOTE! PAC (UNIT… | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2025-10-10 | INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- … | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2025-07-23 | INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS LOCA… | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2025-03-26 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO… | 24E | $5 |
| 2025-03-26 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO… | 24E | $0 |
| 2025-03-26 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO… | 24E | $0 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (20)
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | principal_candidate_of | JOE KERR FOR CONGRESS | — | candidate_committees |